MarketsInsights

Progress of US-China trade deal likely to drive sentiment this week

S'pore to release trade, GDP data; traders also keeping eye on latest developments in HK unrest

UOB economist Alvin Liew expects Singapore's third-quarter gross domestic product to be revised upwards from Oct 14's preliminary estimate.
UOB economist Alvin Liew expects Singapore's third-quarter gross domestic product to be revised upwards from Oct 14's preliminary estimate. ST PHOTO: MARK CHEONG

With the third-quarter earnings season in its home stretch, investors' attention over the week will be squarely placed on trade matters, particularly progress on the "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China.

Early last week, sentiments were hurt as worries rose that an agreement could be breaking down, but things picked up later last Friday after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow reiterated that both parties were close to a deal.

Whether the promise of sweeter prospects - that a deal is being cut - remains or comes closer to fruition is anybody's guess, with risk appetite in the market remaining sensitive to developments on the trade front.

FXTM market analyst Han Tan said: "Investors' patience will be tested as they await news of the timing and location for the US-China trade deal's signing, with such key details or the lack thereof potentially triggering sharp moves in the markets."

Traders are also keeping their eyes peeled for developments in Hong Kong, where tensions have reached fever pitch.

Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8 per cent to 28,004.89, the S&P 500 gained 0.8 per cent to 3,120.46, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.7 per cent to 8,540.83.

In the local market, the Straits Times Index managed to cap the week with slight gains last Friday after two straight sessions of losses to end at 3,238.86, up 7.01 points, or 0.2 per cent.

Week on week, the blue-chip index dipped 25.44 points, or 0.7 per cent.

There are a couple of key releases on the local economic docket, including October's non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) out today. According to a Bloomberg poll, Nodx may rebound slightly by 1.5 per cent from September.

UOB economist Alvin Liew said: "But compared with one year ago, the contraction may accelerate to 11 per cent year on year in October on the back of a hefty 25 per cent year-on-year contraction in electronics exports (from minus 24.8 per cent year on year in September)."

Singapore will also release its final print for third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday.

Mr Liew expects third-quarter GDP to be revised upwards from Oct 14's preliminary estimate, where growth would clock in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1 per cent year on year and 0.6 per cent quarter on quarter.

Bloomberg's median estimate has GDP growth coming in at 0.3 per cent and 0.8 per cent on a yearly and quarterly basis, respectively.

Elsewhere in the region, things may be relatively uneventful as far as economic data releases are concerned. Of the lot, Thailand will reveal its third-quarter GDP figures today.

Mr Liew noted that according to a Bloomberg poll, Thai growth is expected to slow slightly to 0.3 per cent on a quarterly basis but on a year-on-year basis, it translates to a higher growth of 2.8 per cent.

UOB's forecast is more bullish than the street, with the bank expecting third-quarter growth to be 3.1 per cent higher year on year.

This week will also see October trade data from Japan, Taiwan and Thailand.

According to ING Asia economist Prakash Sakpal, the data will be "probed for signs of an export-led recovery".

Wednesday will see the decision of China's one-year loan prime rate (LPR), with the street expecting the one-year LPR to be unchanged at 4.2 per cent.

Among Asia-Pacific central banks, Bank Indonesia (BI) has a monetary policy decision on Thursday. Following last month's rate cut decision, the street consensus is for BI to keep rates unchanged at 5 per cent.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on November 18, 2019, with the headline Progress of US-China trade deal likely to drive sentiment this week. Subscribe