Dominic Cummings’ trip to Durham during the lockdown sharply reduced public confidence in the Government’s ability to handle the pandemic, analysis by UCL has found.
Researchers found a clear decrease in confidence starting on 22 May when the story initially broke and continuing to fall quickly in the days that followed.
There had already been a gradual decrease in public adherence to guidelines prior to publicity about the actions of Boris Johnson’s chief adviser, but this decline grew in the weeks that followed, especially in England.
The research, which was published in The Lancet, analysed data from UCL’s Covid-19 Social Study that looked at over 220,000 survey results.
Trust falls
The researchers ascertained whether the drop in confidence was likely a result of Cummings’ actions by comparing the responses of study participants in England to those in Scotland and Wales, who were asked to rate their confidence in their own devolved governments.
There was no evidence of a similar large drop in confidence in the governments of the devolved nations during the period analysed.
Dr Daisy Fancourt, lead author of the study, said: “Trust in Government decisions and actions relating to the management of Covid-19 is a major challenge globally and these data illustrate the negative and lasting consequences that political decisions can have for public trust and the risks to behaviours.”
Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said “Boris Johnson’s failure to confront Dominic Cummings over his lockdown breach was a monumental misjudgment.
“The Government rightly asked the British people to make huge sacrifices to drive down infection rates. So to have allowed his most senior advisor to blatantly break the rules undermined vital life saving public health messaging at the peak of this deadly pandemic.”
Acting Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey said the failure to sack Cummings showed Boris Johnson’s “weakness and incompetence”.
There has been no recovery from the Cummings effect in the weeks since the story broke, with confidence in England remaining low and gaps in confidence between England and the devolved nations widening over time.