WINTER 2023/24
Image: Charlotte Morton OBE, Chief Executive, World Biogas Association.
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“the shortcomings are terrifying” Charlotte Morton OBE on COP28
WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
Contents COVER STORY
6 COP28: The Good, the Bad and the Lacking. Charlotte Morton OBE, Chief Executive, World Biogas Association.
14
10 COP28: My personal reflections Andy Cox
In climate conversation with… Prof Phil Blythe CBE
Head of Energy Transition, Howden Group.
Professor of Intelligent Transport Systems, Newcastle University.
Got an article in mind? All enquiries shawn@binarycarbon.co.uk
Publisher
Interviewer
Shawn Coles
Andy Walker
WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
Q2 2023
Contents 18
The Pressing Need for New Clean Energy Economic Model Paul McCormack, Chief Executive, Hydrogen Ireland.
2024 regular columns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
26
Jonny Prest
Guest student writer
Creative Strategist, Seed.
Dr Ian Kenny and Dr Dhouha Kbaier, The Open University.
Sustainability has Left the Party: Demystifying Regenerative Business Strategy
Adaptive Machine Learning: Pioneering Climate Modelling for a Sustainable Future
The UK’s only not-for-profit climate magazine © Binary Carbon 2023
WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
COP28: The Good, the Bad and the Lacking.
By Charlotte Morton OBE Chief Executive World Biogas Association
Having attended many COPs over
Whilst some COP28 breakthroughs
the years, I cannot say I have ever
have been hailed as historic: the first
returned home feeling optimistic
ever global agreement to transition
about what was achieved. COP28 was
away from fossil fuels; an agreement
no different - it still fundamentally
on the framework for the Loss and
failed to demonstrate a collective will
Damage Fund; and a new array of
to address the extreme climate and
international pledges spanning oil-
environmental emergency we are in.
and-gas company emissions and the
The conflict of interests of oil
tripling of renewables, this is simply
producing countries, including of
nowhere near enough.
course the UAE, which held the COP28 Presidency, and the failure of developed countries which have achieved their developed status from fossil energy, to contribute anywhere near the amount needed for the loss and damage fund don’t help, but even more urgent issues than climate change, such as the pollution of our rivers and oceans, are not even on the
6 COP agenda.
The world spent trillions on Covid-19, yet after years of negotiations, the Loss and Damage Fund can count on a mere $700 million to help climatevulnerable countries. Unbelievably the IMF reported that fossil-fuel subsidies surged to a record $7
trillion last year as governments supported consumers and businesses during the global rise in energy
Charlotte Morton OBE at COP28
prices caused by Russia’s invasion of
meetings with all the key climate
Ukraine and the economic recovery
funds including the International
from the pandemic.
Fund for Agricultural Development
At least COP28 did focus on the potent climate pollutant, methane. 86 times more potent than CO2 in its first twenty years in the atmosphere,
methane can buy us time in the fight against climate change. I was invited to join the COP28 Methane Summit on 2nd December and so witnessed Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the UAE President of COP28, John Kerry, and Xie Zhenhua, respectively USA and China’s Special Envoys for Climate, make a raft of new announcements on methane action. 50 companies, representing over 40% of global oil production, committed to end routine flaring and to “zero-out” methane
Environment Facility (GEF) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF), all of whom are looking at methane action. The majority already appreciated the key role of the biogas sector in preventing methane emissions, from rotting organic wastes such as wastewater, municipal solid waste, and agricultural wastes (e.g. manures and slurries, agricultural residues), and also the enormous value the biogas industry can deliver by recycling these wastes into multiple forms of renewable energy, biofertilisers, biogenic CO2 and many other valuable bioproducts.
emissions by 2030 and a “methane
As always, I stressed the critical
finance sprint”, first announced
importance of recycling the 105bn
earlier this year by US President
tonnes of organic wastes humans
Biden, was also mentioned with more
generate every year not only in the
than $1bn in new grant funding for
many bilateral meetings we had but
methane reduction across all sectors.
also in the official side event we
The hosts of the Methane Summit
hosted in the Blue Zone of COP28.
also called for countries to submit
With Martina Otto, Head of
their next round of national climate
Secretariat of the Climate and Clean
plans and to ensure they are
Air Coalition (CCAC), opening the
economy-wide and cover all
panel discussion, and alongside
greenhouse gases.
speakers from the Mexican and
Funding to mitigate methane emissions is finally becoming
8
(IFAD), the World Bank, the Global
available. At COP28, I had bilateral
Pakistani Governments, the International Solid Waste Association (ISWA) and GHD, I highlighted the biogas sector’s
ability to deliver close to half of the
technologies to transition away from
Global Methane Pledge, a
fossil fuels, we know how to manage
commitment by over 150 countries to
waste and prevent pollution, we have
cut global methane emissions by 30%
the science that tells us how we can
against 2020 levels by 2030.
use Nature to save our ecosystems.
Waste was also on the COP agenda for the first time, with a Waste and
Resources Pavilion, the launch of the Waste to Zero Initiative and many side events demonstrating that this not so glamorous sector is essential if we want to keep 1.5°C warming limit in reach. For every small win, however, the
shortcomings are terrifying. As the evidence produced by the GOES Institute in Scotland highlights, the rate of pollution of our oceans is a far more urgent issue than Climate Change and will have dire consequences for our planet if not addressed NOW, yet we are still not focusing on it.
We only lack the political, corporate and individual will. Even more frustrating is that taking the necessary action is a massively positive economic story – the biogas industry alone will create 10-15 million new green jobs and a supply chain worth trillions. The global reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrates that the political will to deliver drastic action can happen. But when will sufficient numbers of us wake up to demand that our governments take the actions necessary to stop pollution, environmental and climate destruction, and protect the natural
world – our home - on which humanity depends?
Global issues need global solutions, but these Conferences of the Parties are only delivering incremental change while maintaining the status quo. Disruptive and radical action is needed NOW to stop the worst consequences of climate change and ecosystem destruction. What is so frustrating is that solutions exist: we have the
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WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
My personal reflections on COP28:
The year Insurance came of age. Reasons to be cheerful and a reality check By Andy Cox, Head of Energy Transition, Howden Group.
Last time I was lucky enough to
The arrival of the insurance industry
attend COP was back in 2008 –
firmly at the table.
COP14 – where I had the honour of chairing a panel of financiers, wind & solar developers and Sir Nicholas Stern. There were just 6,000 people in attendance back then. Wow, how things have changed – or have they? Yes, there were between 60,000 -
100,000 delegates at COP28 (depending who you include) but the dirty secret is, the subject matter being discussed really hasn’t changed much, we still need to work out how on earth we solve the climate crisis. Even the private roundtable that I
chaired in the first week of COP28 covered similar ground to that discussion 15 years ago but with one notable difference.
10
King Charles started the ball rolling when he commented in his keynote opening address how impressed he is with the role that the insurance industry is starting to play when it comes to climate change. I think this was a light bulb moment for some but for many, it was more of a trigger to start grey matter cogs rotating. Across many forums at COP28 I attended conversations which included much discussion about risks – new and emerging risks, as well as those more fully understood. But frequently didn’t hear people articulating the role that insurance can play beyond its traditional protection.
At least that was true in the first few
Financing of the energy transition is
days. But, like a virgin spring on an
proving to be a formidable challenge.
alpine mountain, the word started to
So, I was encouraged to hear many
trickle out in two areas: Loss and
people commenting positively about
Damage Fund and Financing.
the role innovative insurance
The launch of the University of Cambridge report (Risk sharing for
Loss and Damage: Scaling up protection for the Global South) detailed how a relatively low insurance premium can release huge amounts of risk capital to pay out
solutions could play, by wrapping around many of the emerging risks that lenders won’t shoulder and transfer those risks on to the 1$30 trillion of ‘assets under management’ held on the balance sheets of the insurance industry.
within 14 days of a climate related
Stepping back and reflecting on
disaster. An important, practical
COP28 as a whole, things certainly
action that will go some way to turn
got off to a strong start with the
words into action for many of the
announcement of a consensus among
most vulnerable countries.
all countries regarding the 1Estimate provided by Rebekah Clement, Corporate Affairs Director, Lloyd’s of
London 05.12.23 during the “Role of insurance in de-risking the Energy Transition” panel.
8
Loss & Damage Fund. By the end of
achieve the climate change goal of 1.5
the conference nearly $800m had
degrees. It will of course take all of
been pledged for the Fund. This was
us across the globe to play our part.
swiftly followed by a series of
We mustn’t listen to the negative
individual country announcements
rhetoric that tends to overshadow the
where significant new funds were
efforts being made. Instead, let’s
committed to climate change
work out what action we as
programmes. On day 3, I was
individuals within society or as
delighted to see at least 118 countries
employees can do to turn words by
commit to the tripling of renewables
some, into actions by many. I for one,
and doubling of energy efficiency
as Head of Energy Transition at
targets. And, I was especially pleased
Howden, will continue to champion
to see the US, with the world’s 3rd
the role the insurance industry must
largest coal power capacity, join 34
play in what remains the greatest
other OECD countries in the
challenge mankind has ever faced.
Powering Past Coal Alliance. Bravo! Sadly, things started to slow down after that and culminated in a set of words that many criticise for failing to call for the full phase out of fossil fuels. But, in a positive way, by referring to “transitioning away from
fossil fuel…” a landmark was reached. For the first time in 30 years of COP a lowering of fossil fuel use was mentioned. One step at a time! So, yes, in that regard COP28 was a success. However, here’s the reality
check. Regardless of the hours and hours of debate and discussion and the many positive announcements and commitments that were made in Dubai, the world remains way off the
12 path we all know we need to follow to
A climate perspective Storm Henke hit the UK on 2nd January. Two days later over 200 flood alerts were in place across the UK, over a 1,000 acres of food producing land were under water and a major incident was announced across Nottinghamshire. Credit: Duncan / stock.adobe.com
WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
In climate conversation with…
Prof Phil Blythe CBE
Andy Walker, Interviewer, Climate Perspectives
Phil Blythe, Professor of Intelligent
transportation that haven’t really
Transport Systems at Newcastle
been linked that much in the past –
University, heads up the new
decarbonisation and moving our
Research Hub for Decarbonised
transport systems and networks
Adaptable and Resilient Transport
towards net zero and also looking at
Infrastructures (DARe). He spoke to
the adaptability and resilience of that
Andy Walker for Climate
transport infrastructure so it can
Perspectives about how the hub is
continue to operate as the effects of
developing solutions for delivering a
extreme weather through climate
resilient, net zero transport system.
change kick in,” says Phil Blythe who
The government-backed DARe is
14
leads the initiative.
helping to upgrade and decarbonise
“We are trying to bring a ‘systems of
the UK’s national, regional and local
systems’ approach to understand all
transport system and is funded
aspects and bring a bunch of models
jointly by research and innovation
together. It’s led by Newcastle
body UKRI and the Department for
University but also includes
Transport. “It’s really an attempt to
Cambridge University as a major
bring together two areas of
partner and also Glasgow University
Tracey Ryan Prof Phil Blythe CBE
and Herriot Watt. We are trying to
understand all this in the round in
understand the challenges of where
the work of DARe,” he said.
we are now towards decarbonisation but also ensuring that our transport networks remain resilient in the face
It’s not only technology and replacing one form of energy and fuel for
of climate change,” says Blythe.
transport by another where the
According to Blythe, transport has
Blythe. “A lot of this is behavioural
never really been high on the
and getting people to think about
political agenda and this needs to
doing things differently, as
change. “If we don’t get an effective
individuals, as society, as business,
transport network for people going to
as government and as a nation.
work and moving the economy
That’s what I think we are really
forward then society could fall to bits
missing when addressing the
very quickly,” he says.
decarbonisation challenge,” he says.
The Department for Transport
Blythe would like to see London-style
published its decarbonisation
public transport rolled out across the
strategy in 2021, which included a lot
country to encourage the behaviour
of work on electromobility,
change that’s needed to make a
recognising that transport is
difference. “We don’t have enough
responsible for 30% of all emissions
alternatives to using the car to
and of that well over 80% is from
enable people to switch to other
road transport. “The low hanging
modes. If you think about London
fruit to make a difference quickly has
which has a fantastic integrated
been dealing with the
transport system, unless you have a
decarbonisation of road transport and
very good reason, you wouldn’t bring
the transition towards electric
a car or a van into London. We don’t
vehicles,” explains Blythe. “From the
have similar systems with similar
resilience point of view, if we are
levels of frequency in the rest of the
putting more of our eggs for
country and until we do that it’s
transportation in the electric basket,
really hard to push people out of
then if we have problems with the
cars,” he says.
resilience of the electricity network then we have massive problems with the resilience of the transport
16 network, so we are trying to
solution to decarbonisation lies, says
Adaptation also needs to be considered according to Blythe. “Adaptation is really critical and
we haven’t looked at it enough in the UK. How do we make existing transport systems more resilient and decarbonised? That may mean different maintenance mechanisms, using intelligent solutions and data to drive updates and changes – we need to think differently. We also need to look at how we keep our current infrastructure running for longer. Being aware of where the ‘hot points’ are in the infrastructure, so use of data is important,” says Blythe. “We hope to gather the evidence and create the models to enable people to make decisions on what needs to be done now and into the future. I’m hoping that our hub will provide some of the evidence for the investment that is needed. We need to understand better what the climate extremes are and that’s why we have partners involved in our work like Network Rail, National Highways, lots of local authorities and regional bodies who have their own unique challenges, so we need to bring all that to bear and see what can be scaled up and used elsewhere,” he says. Blythe says that DARe will bring in all the expertise from its many stakeholders to act as a “one-stop shop for discussion and action” on this important issue. “We are also committed to creating models and the outputs we create will be open source and available to all – we will bring together stakeholders and the best of the UK to develop a national view,” says Blythe. Like many who work in this sector, Blythe is passionate about tackling climate change and feels its impact
personally. “As I child I lived in a council house in Durham and every winter we had fantastic snow and we used to go to a hill near us and sledge for three months of the year. Since my kids were born – they are both in their mid-20s now – snow is almost a treat and they have only seen it perhaps a few times in their young lives and it just highlights the changes in the climate in that time,” he says. Despite the danger that the government may backtrack on its decarbonisation commitments in the face of economic challenges, Blythe retains an optimism that real change can be achieved. “Climate change is an existential threat to the country and has to be an absolute priority and we have to keep the faith. We have the opportunity in this country to be a leader on this and we need to look at where we can make a difference now and export those ideas elsewhere,” says Blythe. “I’ve always been an optimist and an enthusiast about making things better. If government still provides leadership so people know what they are investing their time and their money into is actually going to be meaningful and can actually deliver, I think we can go a long way into mitigating the effects of climate change. I’m optimistic we can do a lot,” he says.
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WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
The Pressing Need for New Clean Energy Economic Model By Paul McCormack, Chief Executive, Hydrogen Ireland.
Trying to integrate clean energy
The transition to net zero is a journey
vectors such as hydrogen, wind, solar
that requires the full implementation
etc, into today’s fossil fuel informed
of zero carbon technologies and
energy economy is akin to the old
vectors such as green hydrogen, not
idiom of trying to fit a square peg in a
merely the addition of these to a
round hole. The two do not align and
traditional energy process.
if we continue to force the issue it will
Successful energy transitions are not
result in failure and significant
demand led they must be leadership
delays in tackling the energy
led, with policies, new innovative
trilemma of climate change, energy
products and strategies that lead to
cost and energy access. Developing
changes in usage. If we adhere to the
and delivering a balanced pathway to
current model where renewables and
net zero requires the basic
other clean energies like green
recognition of the need for a
hydrogen are merely add on’s then
completely different energy equation
the system will not deliver the results
and then the need to construct one
to meet our carbon targets.
that realises the full environmental, economic and societal benefits of the clean energy vectors.
18
The pathway to net zero with the
Paris Agreement milestones at 2030 and 2050 is well identified but it is the fossil fuel companies that are
Listen here on Spotify Exclusive interviews from changemakers
from Binary Carbon the organiser of
setting the pace and already
market incentives, technology
changing the narrative and targets.
development and policy and
The news from COP28 highlights
regulation. These at first appear to be
that the bar has been set lower than
significant challenges on their own
expected and instead of having an
and in totality present substantial
incrementally faster route to net zero
obstacles in achieving a clean energy
by 2050 this is being postponed, we
economy. However, if we were to
are adopting a slower route and we
change the benchmark metric from
will still be burning fossil fuels well
that of the current energy model to
beyond 2050. Most oil and gas
one where we should embrace all
companies are watching the energy
clean energy potential then these
transition from the side-lines and
obstacles are not insurmountable.
paying scant attention for urgent need for action. Postponing action and taking a slower route to the Paris Agreement targets of 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050 will only serve to worsen the climate crisis, restrict clean energy technology research and restrict the widespread
The GenComm hydrogen hubs successfully illustrated the build out of renewable energy generation including Offshore wind, Solar Farms and Anaerobic Digestion systems, demonstrating how hydrogen as an energy vector can capture curtailed
benefits of a clean energy economy.
and constrained energy and be used
If we are serious about providing
efficiencies.
clean energy solutions to tackle the climate crisis, deliver energy security and achieve sovereignty for non-fossil fuel countries then we must look to the how, where and when we can devise a new energy model that is fit
in achieving increased energy system
A new energy model would include a combination of policy interventions, market reforms, and technological advancements. Some potential strategies that do not ‘fit’ the current
for purpose.
model would include implementing
There are several factors that are
providing financial incentives for
highlighted as to the perceived
clean hydrogen production, investing
unsuitability of the current energy
in research and development, and
economic model for clean hydrogen
fostering international cooperation on
integration. These include production
hydrogen standards and trade. It has
20 costs, infrastructure challenges,
carbon pricing mechanisms,
to be recognised that governments,
industry stakeholders, and
In conclusion we must develop a
researchers are actively working on
dedicated clean energy route to net
developing new frameworks and
zero and not settle on the current
policies to facilitate the integration of
position of being in the slow lane of
clean hydrogen, but they are
the current fossil fuel highway. It is
shackled with trying to get them to
widely agreed that there are many
fit into the existing energy economic
challenges associated with
model. As clean energy technologies
transitioning from traditional fossil
evolve and mature and obstacles such
fuel-based energy systems to cleaner
as cost are reducing through
and more sustainable alternatives.
competition, then we must witness
However, we must ‘treat the
the evolution of a new economic
symptom, not the cause,’ and address
model to better accommodate and
the challenge that we cannot retrofit
incentivise the clean hydrogen
clean energy solutions into an energy
revolution and meet the real
model that is outdated, polluting and
challenges of sustainability.
runs contrary to our long term
Implementing a new economic model for clean hydrogen integration requires a step change in the current approach. It needs an holistic and
environmental. economic and social need. We must construct new and not have a sequential retrofit that maintains the CO2 status quo.
coordinated approach involving government policies, regulatory
frameworks, industry collaboration, and public support. We are living in times that require action and as such the energy landscape and technologies will continue to evolve, therefore flexibility and adaptability are key. Crucial for the success of the new clean energy economic model will be the provision of regular reassessment and adjustment of policies based on technological advancements and market developments.
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WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
Sustainability has Left the Party: Demystifying Regenerative Business Strategy By Jonny Prest, Creative Strategist, Seed.
As a brand strategist who works at
each person to tone it down? This is
the intersection of climate research
our current climate communications
and regenerative business models,
method (in other words: nudge
I'm continually asked by friends and
tactics). No, we need radical reform
acquaintances, ‘What is
and to end this party pronto. We need
sustainability? What is regenerative?’
to take away the booze and switch
My long-winded academic response
the music off.
often leaves people glazed over and bewildered, so I’ve constructed a (somewhat crude) analogy of
sustainability and how it relates to
So, sustainability is ordering a cab and leaving the party. In other
words, not doing bad. Regenerative is
the path to regenerative.
staying and cleaning up (proactively
So here goes. Imagine you are at a
attention.
party that got way out of hand. There’s a fight kicking off in the kitchen; someone has thrown up in the bedroom and a fire has been
started in the garden. This is our current global situation. Now what?
22 Do we go around individually and tell
doing good). Now I have their
In the ever-evolving landscape of corporate responsibility, the terms ‘sustainable’, ‘ESG’, ‘CSR’ and ‘SDGs’
have long been touted as the benchmarks for conscientious business practices.
However, a paradigm shift is
customers become environmentally
underway, asserting that
conscious (and they will), the more
sustainability alone is no longer
you need to be building your brand so
sufficient. The death knell for
that protecting people and the planet
degenerative business models has
becomes central to your meaning and
rung, and the dawn of a new era is
offering.
marked by the rise of regenerative strategies that transcend mere
The role of brand in regenerative
environmental awareness.
practices
In a world grappling with the
Remodelling a brand around
consequences of centuries of industrialisation and consumerism, the stark reality is that traditional sustainability measures are inadequate. We have a prevalence of business models and products that are fundamentally degenerative,
regenerative practices is the linchpin for success. It involves a holistic approach that transcends mere environmental initiatives. A regenerative brand: •
ecological systems: the brand
actively contributing to pollution and
becomes a force for positive
lacking genuine societal value.
change, actively supporting and protecting social and ecological
The transition towards regenerative
systems.
practices is most potent at the very core – the brand DNA. An organisation's brand serves as its
•
Enhances reputation and attracts conscious stakeholders:
DNA, guiding decisions, shaping
regenerative practices distinguish
product development and embodying
a business in the
belief systems. To embark on the
sustainable/regenerative
journey towards regenerative
economy, attracting conscious
business, a fundamental reshaping of
customers and investors.
the brand is imperative. So what is
‘brand’? It’s a word that has an
Contributes to social and
•
Aligns identity and messaging
identity crisis (ironic, eh?). For me,
with regenerative focus: the
your brand is what people feel about
brand becomes a beacon of
you. It's their connectedness with
change, aligning identity and
who you are and your relevance
messaging to foster trust and
24 within their lives. The more that your
loyalty.
•
Inspires employees and fosters a
As the sustainability narrative
culture of purpose: employees
evolves, regenerative business
become agents of change, driven
strategies emerge as the beacon
by a sense of purpose derived
for genuine, impactful change.
from the organisation's
By understanding the demise of
commitment to regeneration.
degenerative models, the essence
A call to action: Climate damage,
not change In our quest for a regenerative future, it's time to shift our narrative. Let's stop saying ‘climate change’ and start calling it what it truly is – climate damage. Embracing this
of regenerative business, and the pivotal role of brands in this transformation, organisations can actively contribute to the cleanup and restoration our planet so desperately requires. The party is far from over – it's time for a regenerative clean up.
mindset is the first step toward
regenerative action, the urgent cleanup we need to address the challenges posed by centuries of unsustainable practices.
25
WINTER 2023/24 | Climate Perspectives
Adaptive Machine Learning: Pioneering Climate Modelling for a Sustainable Future By Dr Ian Kenny, MSc Student and Post Doctoral Research Assistant and Dr Dhouha Kbaier, Senior Lecturer in Computing & Communications, The Open University.
The Open University has a mission to
we have created an innovative
generate impact-driven research to
approach that harnesses the power of
ensure a sustainable planet. Our
adaptive machine learning, paving
contribution is through the
the way for real-time insights and
intersection of two extraordinary
dynamic decision-making in the face
fields: climate change and machine
of our changing climate. The strength
learning. We have created a model
of machine learning is to identify
designed to adapt to the increasing
patterns in data. Our aim is to
rapidity of climate change.
produce an adaptive model able to
Our starting point came from the realisation that accurate climate
respond to the changing climate more
rapidly than traditional models.
predictions are the backbone of
Our mission is clear—to redefine
informed decision-making, guiding
climate modelling, empower decision-
everything from everyday weather
makers, and address urgent
forecasts to local responses to
challenges such as food and water
extreme weather events to long-term
security and the consequences to
climate projections. However,
human health posed by a changing
traditional climate models face
climate. We want to design a model
challenges in capturing recent events
which is useful for local public service
26 and minimising biases. In response,
resource planning and for
Credit: Kyle Anthony Photography/Shutterstock.com Image supplied by The Open University
business continuity, enabling more
The model we developed is called
resilience for society in the face of the
RACC for Rapid Adaptive Climate
effects of climate change.
Change. It takes a novel approach to
By developing a model that adapts dynamically to smaller datasets, we aim not only to enhance climate predictions but also to inspire
accurate climate forecasts using smaller datasets to model and generate precise predictions.
positive changes in policy, decision-
The model integrates atmospheric
making and behaviour for climate
and hydrospheric data so that the
adaptation. The output of the model
relationship between air
takes the form of probabilities as to
temperature, humidity and
an event occurring. However, the
barometric pressure can be
accuracy of these probabilities are a
measured, enabling a deeper
significant improvement over the
understanding of the relationship
current method of forecasting. This
between heat cycles . Through
allows for better planning of future
modelling this relationship it
resource need in the short to
becomes possible to predict with a
medium-term: we are currently
given likelihood what will happen
working on a five year adaptive cycle.
next.
Accurate predictions are essential for
We expect this model to augment
preparing and mitigating the impact
existing climate models rather than
of extreme weather events, seasonal
replace them, and we emphasise its
variations, and long-term climate
potential to provide adaptive short-
shifts. We found that current
term forecasts for the evolving
traditional approaches often rely on
climate system.
very big datasets, which may not always be available for recent years or be sufficiently rich. Such data also faces the challenge of representing
complex climate processes, which govern the increasingly complex interactions which take place in our atmosphere.
28
tackle the challenge of generating
In this era of rapid climate change, embracing innovative research enables us to refine our understanding and improve our ability to adapt to climate impacts. Our ongoing research represents a significant step forward in the realm of climate change modelling and forecasting and offers the
potential to revolutionise such
• Provide your feedback on the
approaches.
practical usefulness of the potential
In addition, the outputs from this
outputs of the model.
research support climate adaptation
At The Open University we are ‘open
planning at the local level, offering
to people, places, methods and ideas’
the opportunity for informed
and we are dedicated to ‘creating and
collective action to best prepare for
sharing knowledge and learning to
climate impacts.
realise social and environmental
How can you get involved?
justice.’
If you are a climate modeller or use climate models to inform decisionmaking and policy, or if you work in climate adaptation, you may wish to
join our research group where you can: • Help us build a multi-stakeholder advisory board; • Join Workshops and Evidence Cafes to build your knowledge and
To find out more about collaborating on our sustainability-related research, please visit Open Societal Challenges. We have also specifically developed a microcredential – 100 hours of learning to help you take a big picture view and apply your learning to develop an action plan for sustainability in your organisation. Watch the course trailer here.
networks; • Inform the direction of the model development to meet your needs; • Suggest research collaborations; • Identify the research needs of different policy-makers and
businesses on the frontline of climate adaptation; • Engage in Citizen Science to enable us to gather local calibrated data to improve the model’s predictions;
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