Second wave 'will be twice as big' if testing doesn't improve by next month
A second wave up to 2.3 times as bad as the first could peak in December without a better test and trace strategy (Picture: Getty/Reuters)

Reopening schools in September without a ‘comprehensive test, trace and isolate strategy’ could lead to a second wave of coronavirus that is twice as big as the first, researchers have said.

A new modelling study by University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) simulated how Covid-19 may spread when schools reopen next month. It also took account of broader implications such as more parents returning to work and its potential repercussions.

The authors of the study, published in The Lancet Child And Adolescent Health, found that ‘with increased levels of testing… and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented’.

But in a worst-case scenario, it could result in a second wave peaking in December which is up to 2.3 times higher than the first.

Reopening schools without effective test and trace 'could risk second wave twice as big as the first' Picture: Metro.co.uk
The modelling study simulated how Covid-19 may spread when schools reopen next month’ (Picture: Metro.co.uk)

Researchers simulated what would happen in an ‘optimistic’ scenario assuming 68% of contacts of people testing positive could be traced. In the more pessimistic scenario the system had 40% coverage.

One of the authors, Chris Bonell, professor of public health sociology at LSHTM, said the current testing system has ‘about 50% coverage’.

For all the latest news and updates on Coronavirus, click here.

He added: ‘Our findings suggests that it might be possible [to avoid] a secondary epidemic wave in the UK, if enough people with symptomatic infection can be diagnosed and their contacts traced and effectively isolated.

‘Reopening schools fully in September, alongside reopening workplaces in society, without an effective test, trace, isolating (TTI) strategy could result in a second wave of infections between two and 2.3 times the size of the original wave.

‘Currently, TTI is not achieving the levels that we modelled. Looking at the NHS reports from the TTI system, it looks like it’s about 50% coverage.’

STONE, ENGLAND - JULY 30: Serco staff working on behalf of NHS Test and Trace operate a coronavirus testing centre on July 30, 2020 in Stone, England. The Staffordshire market town of Stone has seen a spike in coronavirus (Covid-19) cases after social distancing guidelines were not adhered to at the nearby Crown and Anchor pub. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
Staff working on behalf of NHS Test and Trace operate a coronavirus testing centre in Stone, England (Picture: Getty Images)
ROCHDALE, ENGLAND - JULY 04: An NHS Test and Trace form is displayed at the entrance of the Regal Moon JD Wetherspoons pub on July 04, 2020 in Rochdale, England. The UK Government announced that Pubs, Hotels and Restaurants can open from Saturday, July 4th providing they follow guidelines on social distancing and sanitising. (Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)
An NHS Test and Trace form is displayed at the entrance of the Regal Moon JD Wetherspoons pub in Rochdale, England (Picture: Getty Images)

The authors said that without appropriate levels of testing and contact tracing, reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are ‘likely to induce a second wave that would peak in December 2020 if schools open full-time in September’.

The model assumes that around 70% of people would return to workplaces once their children returned to school and up to a 90% increase of mixing within the community with schools reopening.

On Friday, chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty warned that data suggests ‘we have probably reached near the limit or the limits of what we can do in terms of opening up society’.

Researchers said that without improvements in testing it will be ‘absolutely essential’ to introduce other measures to ‘mitigate’ the knock-on effects of schools reopening.

Both Prof Whitty and the Prime Minister said there may need to be ‘difficult trade-offs’ ahead, for example closing pubs and curbing meetings between family members in order to get children back in the classroom.

Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty - Press Conference - 31 July 2020
Professor Chris Whitty warned last week we are ‘near the limit’ of what we can do in terms of opening up society

Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, senior research fellow and lecturer in mathematical modelling at the Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, UCL, added: ‘Our modelling suggests that, with a highly effective test and trace strategy in place across the UK, it is possible for schools to reopen safely in September.

‘However, without sufficient coverage of a test-trace-isolate strategy the UK risks a serious second epidemic peak either in December or February. Therefore, we urge the Government to ensure that test-trace-isolate capacity is scaled up to a sufficient level before schools reopen.’

A Government spokesperson said: ‘NHS Test and Trace is already working – last week over 80 per cent of those testing positive were reached with over 75 per cent of their contacts reached as well.

‘We have rapidly built, from scratch, the largest diagnostic testing industry in British history.

‘Over 2.6 million people have been tested in just eight weeks and we have the capacity to carry out more than 330,000 tests per day, growing to 500,000 per day by the end of October.’

Simon Clarke, minister for regional growth and local government, said earlier that schools reopening ‘in full’ in the autumn ‘is not up for debate’.

He told Sky News the NHS Test and Trace programme ‘is delivering’, but added that ‘there’s always more to do’.

Mr Clarke said: ‘We continue to work very hard to boost our testing capacity. We’re on track to deliver half a million by the end of October.

‘But one thing is clear, schools are going to reopen in full in the autumn. That is not up for debate.’

anonymous students in uniform sitting an exam online using digital tablets. Examination room set up with tables and desks in a high school hall. Results, grades, marks, assessment tool concept.; Shutterstock ID 1501419359; Purchase Order: -
The study simulated how the virus may spread when schools reopen in September (Picture: Shutterstock/Lincoln Beddoe)

Dr David Nabarro, the WHO’s special envoy on Covid-19, warned that if Test and Trace is ‘not done properly, then you get very bad surges occurring’.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘This virus is capable of surging back really quickly and is actually doing so in most countries where there’s been success at getting it under control and, as it surges back, the way you stop outbreaks developing is through having well-functioning contact tracing linked to testing, with isolation of people who’ve got symptoms or who’ve been in contact.

‘If we can do that, and do it well, then the surges are kept really small, they’re dealt with quickly and life can go on.

‘If, on the other hand, this testing and tracing and isolation just is not done properly, then you get very bad surges occurring and this will lead to economic challenges.’

More than 56,600 deaths involving Covid-19 have now been registered in the UK.

Figures published on Tuesday by the ONS show that 51,596 deaths involving Covid-19 had occurred in England and Wales up to July 24, and had been registered by August 1.

Figures published last week by the National Records for Scotland showed that 4,201 deaths involving Covid-19 had been registered in Scotland up to July 26, while 854 deaths had occurred in Northern Ireland up to July 24 (and had been registered up to July 29) according to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Together, these figures mean that so far 56,651 deaths have been registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, including suspected cases.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

For more stories like this, check our news page.