Coronavirus could flare up again or burn out like a firework - professor

The question of how many people are likely to be immune after the current "first wave" is a vital one, says Professor Friston.

Lockdown measures look set to be eased - but some fear a second spike in cases
Image: Lockdown measures look set to be eased - but some fear a second spike in cases
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The coronavirus outbreak could be similar to a smouldering fire whose embers could "flare up" again - or it may have burnt out like a firework, according to one expert.

The comments were made on a YouTube live-stream from a group of scientists trying to provide independent analysis of the COVID-19 crisis.

Professor Karl Friston, a renowned neuroscientist, was explaining how a second wave of infections might happen when lockdown restrictions are eased.

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He explained: "One can frame the immediate issue as how would a fireman respond to a fire.

"There are two scenarios one could consider: you think you've put the fire out and the firemen go home - and yet there are little embers that will flare up again if they leave prematurely. This would be the flare-up analogy."

But the University College London expert said another strong possibility was that "we've witnessed a firework or an explosion and all that can be burned has been burned".

He said: "It crucially depends on the divide between are we dealing with a fire that's been partially put out and we have to keep on returning and quashing the embers to prevent a second flare up.

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"Or, have we actually witnessed what has happened and now we have entered this window of opportunity where the explosion has happened and there's going to now be a replenishing of combustible material as we lose immunity."

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Prof Friston said it was not yet known if immunity to the virus could be lost but that it was vital to know how many people are likely to be immune after the current "first wave".

He said a random antibody test of around 5,000 people would give scientists "a very good handle" on the question.

Prof Friston is one of 12 experts from different scientific fields on the so-called "rival SAGE", a reference to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

SAGE is the group advising the government on its coronavirus response and is co-chaired by Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty, familiar faces from the daily Downing Street briefings.

However, the group has been accused of not being open and transparent in how it operates.

Professor Karl Friston
Image: Professor Friston is one of 12 people on the 'rival SAGE' group

The names of its members were released on Monday after weeks of pressure from critics, but the details of their discussions have been withheld.

The "rival" group was set up by Sir David King, the government's chief science adviser from 2000 to 2007.

It will look at matters such as how successful testing and tracing can be achieved, what social distancing measures will be needed in future, and whether shielding of vulnerable groups has been sufficient.