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Politics latest: Michael Gove predicts election date; 130 rush hour trains cancelled every morning, claim Lib Dems

Michael Gove thinks the election will be in November - but professes to have "no inside knowledge". Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have claimed 130 rush hour trains are cancelled every morning. Listen to the latest episode of the Electoral Dysfunction podcast as you scroll.

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Electoral Dysfunction: Where do royalty and politics meet?

While the Royal Family have faced a challenging few weeks, our political editor Beth Rigby, Jess Phillips, and Ruth Davidson explore the points where royalty and politics meet, and what the family will say publicly about the state of cancer care following the King and the Princess of Wales's diagnoses.

Plus, is deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden someone likely to be feeling on top this week after calling out China-backed cyberattacks and announcing sanctions against two individuals and a company? Beth, Jess, and Ruth discuss the extent of the Chinese threat.

And they go through more of your messages and questions.

Listen here:

👉Tap here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts👈

Email Beth, Jess, and Ruth at electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

Warning: some explicit language.

Why don't we know when the general election is?

There will most likely be a general election at some point in 2024, but we don't know exactly when.

We do know it won't happen on 2 May - when local elections will take place across England. 

The prime minister's "working assumption" is that it will be held in the second half of this year - but beyond that we know very little about the precise timing.

So why is this the case?

Political correspondent Serena Barker-Singh explains:

130 rush hour trains cancelled every morning - Liberal Democrats

Around 237,000 rush hour trains have been cancelled in the UK since 2019, data shared by the Liberal Democrats claims.

This equates to an average of 130 trains each morning - between 6am and 9am - according to the data obtained from Network Rail.

This also revealed that the most cancelled train is the 6.40am service from Cardiff to Nottingham, which had 68 cancellations in 2023 alone.

And the train operator with the worst record was Northern Trains, with 25,578 morning services cancelled since 2019.

Liberal Democrat spokesperson for transport, Wera Hobhouse, said: "The Conservative government has hammered passengers with rail fare hikes and a train network that simply cannot be relied upon. 

"Passengers are having to roll the dice every day, uncertain as to whether they will get to their final destinations on time, or even at all.

"To add insult to injury, instead of sorting out the near unusable network, ministers have punished passengers with ever higher ticket prices."

Gove predicts possible general election dates, but claims he has 'no inside knowledge'

In case you missed it, Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove yesterday weighed in on when he thinks the general election will take place.

"I think November the 14th or 21st," he told the Political Currency podcast with former Tory chancellor George Osborne and former Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls.

But he had one important caveat: "I have no inside knowledge at all," he says. 

Challenged by Ed Balls, who said: "But you've just been to see the prime minister today", he replies: "If he had told me, I couldn't tell you. 

"Therefore, the fact that I've told you what I think is proof that I didn't know."

While it remains unclear when the next election will be, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has previously said it was his "working assumption" that an election would be held in the second half of this year.

He has also ruled out holding the general election on 2 May, which would have coincided with local elections.

Good morning!

Welcome back to the Politics Hub on Good Friday.

The Commons is in recess, and MPs are likely enjoying the long Bank Holiday weekend, but there is still plenty to keep track of today.

Here's what's coming up:

  • The NASUWT, the Teachers' Union, is holding its annual conference in Harrogate, North Yorkshire, from today;
  • The union will call on the government to increase its support for the profession by committing to a Better Deal for Teachers that addresses stagnating pay, skyrocketing workloads, recruitment and retention problems;
  • Meanwhile, data shared by the Liberal Democrats claims around 237,000 rush hour trains have been cancelled since 2019, equating to 130 morning services per day;
  • And new research published by Labour has found that councils run by the party charge £276 less on average in council tax than their Conservative counterparts;
  • Today, Humza Yousaf marks a year as the first minister of Scotland.

We'll be discussing all of that and more with:

  • Tory peer Lord Hayward at 7.15am;
  • Africa minister Andrew Mitchell at 7.30am;
  • Labour Party chair Anneliese Dodds at 8.15am.
That's all for the Politics Hub tonight

But before you go, here are today's headlines:

  • Sir Keir Starmer has warned Labour can't "turn the taps on" to help struggling councils if he wins the next general election;
  • He also told Sky's Beth Rigby levelling up had been "strangled at birth" by Rishi Sunak;
  • He was speaking as Labour launched its campaign for the local elections on 2 May;
  • Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner has said she will not publish the "personal tax advice" she received on the sale of her council house despite a police development over her living arrangements;
  • The chief executive of Thames Water has refused to rule out bill increases of up to 40% for customers as the troubled company tries to secure its future;
  • Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove has predicted the general election will be in November, but stressed he has "no inside knowledge".

We'll be back from 6am with all the very latest.

Reform MP Lee Anderson empty chaired after pulling out of politics show

Reform MP Lee Anderson has been empty chaired after failing to appear on a politics show. 

Mr Anderson was scheduled as a guest on The Sun's Never Mind the Ballots. 

"After agreeing to come on today's show, Lee has now pulled out at the very last minute," Sun political editor and host Harry Cole said.

Revealing the empty chair, he added: "I will leave you to draw your own conclusions on how interested he really is in gaining your support at the election".

Mr Anderson defected to Reform from the Conservative Party earlier this month, becoming the party's first MP.

Electoral Dysfunction: Royals' cancer diagnoses put struggling NHS in the spotlight

By Beth Rigby, political editor

There is an edict in our democracy that politics and royalty must not mix.

Sure, we live in a "constitutional monarchy" where King Charles is head of state, wading through government papers and meeting the prime minister weekly.

But when it comes to the task of setting the political direction and framing our nation's political debate, the Royal Family has to zip it and remain entirely neutral.

And just as the royals don't stray into political territory, political editors like myself and politicians don't talk much about the Royal Family.

In fact, politicians actively swerve any questions inviting them to comment on the latest tabloid drama around the royals.

But this week on Electoral Dysfunction, we've broken with our own conventions to discuss the Princess of Wales's announcement that she has cancer, and ask whether this might be a moment when the cultural and social role the Royal Family play in our national life takes a more political tilt.

Read more below - and listen to Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts.

Email Beth, Jess, and Ruth at electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444. 

Ireland's deputy leader appeals to Israel to 'show humanity' and allow more aid into Gaza

Ireland's deputy premier has appealed to Israel "to show humanity" and allow more aid into Gaza. 

Micheal Martin, who is Ireland's foreign affairs minister, described the humanitarian situation as "catastrophic".

According to the United Nations, a quarter of Gaza's 2.3 million population faced starvation. Around 80% had fled their homes since Israel launched its military campaign.

Israel launched the offensive in response to the Hamas attacks of 7 October. 

"Nothing can get away from the fact that what would really have an immediate impact is really a proper flow of aid through the land routes," Mr Martin said.

"It is criminal, it is absolutely a scandal that children are malnourished, that half the population are facing famine, and others in terms of insecurity. There is no need for this.

"There's excessive checking at the borders. And I spoke this morning to Ayman Safadi, the foreign minister in Jordan, I spoke to Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry yesterday, and I spoke to the Palestinian prime minister yesterday also.

"They're telling me the situation is dire, absolutely catastrophic. And I would appeal to Israel to show humanity in terms of enabling the essentials of life to get into Gaza for the civilian population."

Mr Martin was speaking at an event in Dublin alongside EU commissioner for humanitarian aid and crisis management Janez Lenarcic, who described the conditions in Gaza as "a man-made disaster".

The comments come as the UN's top court ordered Israel to open more land crossings to allow food, water, fuel and other supplies into Gaza. 

In a unanimous decision, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said Israel must take "all the necessary and effective action" to prevent a further deterioration of the "catastrophic living conditions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip".

Piling even more pressure on the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, the justices observed that "Palestinians in Gaza are no longer facing only a risk of famine... but that famine is setting in", as they called for urgent action to prevent mass starvation.

Ireland's premier Leo Varadkar said Israel "must immediately comply" with the ICJ provisional measures.

For more on the ICJ order, click the link below:

Will Labour or the Conservatives win the next election? Latest polling from the Sky News live tracker

The Sky News live poll tracker - collated and updated by our Data and Forensics team - aggregates various surveys to indicate how voters feel about different political parties.

As Labour launches its local elections campaign, it is still sitting comfortably on a roughly 20-point lead, averaging at 43.5% in the polls, with the Tories on 23.5%.

In third is Reform UK on 11.9%, followed by the Lib Dems on 10.0%.

The Green Party stands at 5.9%, and the SNP on 2.9%.

See the latest update below - and you can read more about the methodology behind the tracker here.