The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 is a world-first in legislating for sustainable development and codifying long-term thinking as a sustainable behaviour within Welsh law. The legal framework provides a lens for decision-makers to steer, frame and challenge the decisions being made for citizens in Wales today with the aim of helping ensure a positive legacy is left for future generations.

Following a year-long research project investigating the use of futures and foresight practices across the Welsh Government, the Sustainable Futures Division is pleased to publish Dr Laura De Vito’s report Foresight for sustainable development and well-being governance in Wales.

The report includes results from a series of pilot projects designed to improve futures and foresight capabilities in Welsh Government, detailed responses from officials working in several other national governments and a set of recommendations geared to further develop and embed futures and foresight practices in Wales. This work has been supported by officials in Natural Resources Wales, Public Health Wales, and the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales’ office.

For those not familiar with futures and foresight, the report provides a very useful overview of different practices, techniques, and opportunities for further learning.

As Dr De Vito outlines:

‘Foresight enhances well‑being and sustainable development governance by integrating long‑term perspectives and supporting policymakers in acknowledging and navigating uncertainty and understanding the long‑term consequences of decisions.’

‘The Well-being of Future Generations Act constitutes a transformative platform upon which the Welsh Government can build on. Under this legislative framework, Welsh Government has the opportunity to address current futures literacy gaps, unlock mechanisms to overcome barriers, and embed long‑term thinking in the Welsh public sector.’

The research project was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and conducted in collaboration with the University of the West of England, where Dr De Vito is a Senior Research Fellow at the Air Quality Management Resource Centre.

The Well-being of Future Generations Act’s sustainable development principle puts long-term thinking at the heart of our work. The Act requires listed public bodies, including the Welsh Government, to consider the long-term impact of our decisions. Dr De Vito’s research demonstrates the importance of good alignment between foresight practices and sustainable decision-making. This research provides us unparalleled insight to help us move forward our futures and foresight work here in the Welsh Government. With the framework provided by the Act and the findings from this research, we are uniquely able to build on the report’s recommendations to ensure that ongoing work is geared to the long term.

The annual Well-being of Wales report is due to be published on 28 September this year. This report will provide an update on well-being in Wales to help us assess whether we are making progress against the seven national well-being goals set out in the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. The report considers progress against the 50 national indicators, alongside a range of other relevant data. The report is a key accountability mechanism, to be transparent about the progress Wales is making towards its well-being goals.

As in 2022, an easy read report will be published in addition to the main report to help ensure everyone is able to access statistical information about Wales.

Ethnicity and well-being supplementary report

We are committed to producing supplementary reports alongside the main report where there is a need to do so. This year we will publish a supplementary report alongside the Well-being of Wales report which focuses on ethnicity and well-being.

Throughout the development of the Anti-Racist Wales Action Plan, the availability of data and evidence was a recurring theme. Across the Welsh Government, we’re looking at how we can improve the evidence base on ethnicity, and the Well-being of Wales report is a part of this. It’s not currently possible to breakdown all national indicators by ethnic group, but there is more we can do right now to better tell the story on progress towards becoming a more equal Wales. The supplementary report aims to bring together existing evidence in order to explore progress towards the well-being goals for different ethnic groups. Alongside other types of evidence, this can be used to help inform decision-making to create a more equal Wales.

What else is new with this year’s report?

The first wave of national milestones were set in December 2021 and last year the Well-being of Wales report included reporting on these milestones for the first time. National milestones assist in measuring the pace of change needed to achieve the well-being goals. The second wave of national milestones were set in November 2022 and we will report on the complete set of national milestones for the first time this year.

The suite of outputs comprising the Well-being of Wales report and the dashboard of National Indicators were assessed by the Office for Statistical Regulation (OSR). They were given National Statistics status last year, which means they have been independently assessed as meeting the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value. We’ve made some improvements this year based on feedback from the OSR as part of their assessment of this report. We’ve aimed to improve how we communicate any uncertainty in the data by putting short term changes in the context of long term trends. Where we use survey data, we have also commented on whether these changes are “statistically significant”, meaning they are unlikely to have occurred by chance. We are also developing a framework which sets out how we decide which types of data sources to use in this report and to measure the national indicators, which will be published ahead of next year’s release.

The Well-being of Wales page contains links to all previous Well-being of Wales reports, as well as data used in the reports, quality information, and national indicators. Check back on 28 September to see our “state of the nation” assessment for 2023.

On 29 September, we published the Wellbeing of Wales report, along with a separate report on children and young people’s well-being. We also published easy read versions of both reports. The suite of outputs comprising the Well-being of Wales report and the dashboard of National Indicators was given National Statistics status this year, which means it has been independently assessed as meeting the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value.

How do you use the Well-being of Wales report?

We currently have some understanding of how the report is used, but we are always looking of ways to improve the report, and make the information we publish more accessible and suitable for a wide ranging audience. Understanding how the report is used is key to this.

To gather your views on how you use the well-being report and national indicators, and how they can be improved, we have created a survey form where you can provide your comments and suggestions.

Please provide your responses by 21 Nov 2022.

Thank you for taking the time to share your views and we look forward to hearing from you.

The annual Well-being of Wales report is due to be published on 29 September this year. This report will provide an update on well-being in Wales to help us assess whether we are making progress against the seven national well-being goals set by the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. The report considers progress against the 50 national indicators, alongside a range of other relevant data.

As in 2021, an easy read report will be published in addition to the main report to help ensure everyone is able to access statistical information about Wales.

In 2018, we published a separate report on well-being in children, alongside the main Well-being of Wales. This report included analysis of children’s well-being based on the Schools Health Research Network, as well as using the Millennium Cohort Study and other sources such as data on children in workless households from the Annual Population Survey. We’ve received feedback that there’s a gap in data on children, so this year we’ll be producing an updated children and young people’s well-being report alongside the main report.

What else is new with this year’s report?

This year will be the first time that the Well-being of Wales report will include reporting on the national milestones. National milestones assist in measuring the pace of change needed to achieve the well-being goals. The first wave of national milestones were set in December 2021 and will be reported on in this year’s Well-being of Wales report where data is available. The second wave of national milestones are currently being consulted on and are expected to be laid before the Senedd in October 2022.

In December 2021 we also laid an updated set of national indicators. We will be reporting on some of these new indicators for the first time this year. These include:

• Percentage of people in employment, who are on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn at least the real Living Wage
• Pay difference for gender, disability and ethnicity
• Proportion of employees whose pay is set by collective bargaining
• Active global citizenship in Wales
• Percentage of households spending 30% or more of their income on housing costs

We’ll update you here on this blog once the report is published, along with a request for your feedback on how we can keep improving it.

Mapping the national indicators to the well-being goals

In a previous blog post in January, we asked for your views on the current mapping of the national indicators to the seven well-being goals. Each indicator was mapped to one or more well-being goals when the indicators were originally set. This helps communicate how each indicator contributes towards achieving Wales’s well-being goals.

Thank you to those of you who responded to the survey. Based on your feedback, as well as discussion with a small group of people from the Welsh Government and other interested organisations, we decided to make some changes. We mapped indicators to additional goals where we felt that there was a clear link between the achievement of the goal and the item measured by the indicator, and we removed them where that link was now less clear.

Overall, we only made a small number of changes, which demonstrates that the original link between goals and indicators is still relevant. Most of the changes we made were for the globally responsible goal, where we asked ourselves “does a change in this indicator have an impact outside of Wales?”.

On 21 June 2022, the Welsh Government launched an twelve week consultation ‘Shaping Wales’ Future: Using National Milestones to measure our Nation’s progress (wave two).

The purpose of this consultation is to seek views on setting the second wave of national milestones for Wales that will assist Ministers in assessing progress towards achieving the seven well-being goals as set out in the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

It’s important that we draw on the views and experiences of people across Wales as we carry out this work and we invite you to contribute. We are keen to hear your views on the proposals. The consultation closes on the 12 September so there is plenty of time for you to respond and share your thoughts and we want to hear from as many people as possible on the proposals.

We would also appreciate your support in raising awareness of this work through any newsletters or networks that you might run. If you have any engagement events of your own you would like to us to come along to share this work, please let us know.

The Welsh Government is committed to using the Well-being of Future Generations framework to create a stronger, fairer, greener and more compassionate Wales, addressing the unprecedented challenges we face. Our focus through our Programme for Government is on the ways we can improve the lives of people in Wales both now and in the future.

We are looking forward to hearing from you and working together to shape Wales’ future.

Today we have published a consultation which seeks views on extending the well-being duty on named public bodies in Part 2 of Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. The consultation also seeks views on the opportunities for public bodies not subject to the Act.

The consultation will run from 14 July to 20 October 2022.

The Minister for Social Justice has published a Written Statement to launch the consultation.

It is important that we draw on the views and experiences of organisations and people from across Wales as we carry out this work and we invite you to contribute.

Today we have published the consultation on ‘Shaping Wales’ Future: Using National Milestones to measure our Nation’s progress (wave two).

The purpose of this consultation is to seek views on setting the second wave of national milestones for Wales that will assist Ministers in assessing progress towards achieving the seven well-being goals as set out in the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

The consultation will run from 21 June to 12 September during which time we will be undertaking a programme of engagement to raise the profile of this important work and seek wider views.

The Minister for Social Justice has published a Written Statement to launch the consultation.

It’s important that we draw on the views and experiences of people across Wales as we carry out this work and we invite you to contribute!

In a previous post on the national indicators, we asked for your views on the set of national well-being indicators, and any gaps that the pandemic had highlighted as important to national well-being.

These indicators were set by Welsh Ministers to measure progress towards achieving the seven well-being goals. Each indicator was mapped to one or more well-being goals as part of the 2015-16 consultation and laying of indicators. Based on recent feedback, we would like to hear your views on the current mapping of indicators to goals to ensure this is still the best it can be.

What are the well-being goals?

The seven well-being goals show the kind of Wales we want to see. Together they provide a shared vision for the public bodies listed in the Well-being of Future Generations Act to work towards. They are a set of goals – the Act makes it clear the listed public bodies must work to achieve all of the goals, not just one or two. The goals are:

• A Prosperous Wales – An innovative, productive and low carbon society which recognises the limits of the global environment and therefore uses resources efficiently and proportionately (including acting on climate change); and which develops a skilled and well-educated population in an economy which generates wealth and provides employment opportunities, allowing people to take advantage of the wealth generated through securing decent work.
• A Resilient Wales – A nation which maintains and enhances a bio-diverse natural environment with healthy functioning ecosystems that support social, economic and ecological resilience and the capacity to adapt to change (for example, climate change).
• A Healthier Wales – A society in which people’s physical and mental well-being is maximised and in which choices and behaviours that benefit future health are understood.
• A More Equal Wales – A society that enables people to fulfil their potential no matter what their background or circumstances (including their socio economic background and circumstances).
• A Wales of Cohesive Communities – Attractive, viable, safe and well-connected communities.
• A Wales of Vibrant Culture and Thriving Welsh Language – A society that promotes and protects culture, heritage and the Welsh language, and which encourages people to participate in the arts, sports and recreation.
• A Globally Responsible Wales – A nation which, when doing anything to improve the economic, social, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales, takes account of whether doing such a thing may make a positive contribution to global well-being. Goal 7 recognises that in an inter-connected world what we do to make Wales a sustainable nation can have positive and adverse impacts outside of Wales.

The current mapping of indicators to goals can be seen in the infographic below and on the national indicator dashboard, or using the interactive mapping of indicators to Well-being and UN Sustainable Development Goals tool.

Re-mapping the indicators: How you can help

To gather your views on the mapping of national indicators to well-being goals, we have created a survey form which lets you allocate indicators to what you think are the best fitting goals. For each indicator you can assign goals, remove goals you feel are not appropriate for that indicator, or leave the current mapping as it is.

Before suggesting changes for an indicator, please make sure you are familiar with the description of the goal being added or removed. More information on the indicators can be found on the online webpages or in the technical description document.

Please provide your response by 11^th February 2022

Thank you for taking the time to share your views, and happy mapping!

As always, you can send any comments or suggestions to the Shaping Wales’ Future mailbox.   

Email: ShapingWalesFuture@gov.wales

As part of the Shaping Wales’ Future programme, the Welsh Government has published the first wave of Wales’ national milestones under the seven well-being goals, an updated suite of national well-being indicators, and the second edition of the Future Trends Report Wales.

These are three important parts of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 that tell us about the progress we’re making towards our well-being goals, help us better understand any challenges we might face on the way and ensure we seize the opportunities we have to do things better. You can access the publications here:

National Milestones

Updated national indicators

Consultation – summary of response

Future Trends Report Wales 2021

We will use the publication of the national milestones, updated indicators, and Future Trends Report as a platform to bring renewed focus on what matters to Wales and where progress is needed, and to ensure that we are better prepared to meet the challenges and seize the many opportunities that lie ahead.

In partnership with Public Health Wales, Natural Resources Wales, and the Future Generations Commissioner’s Office, Welsh Government recently held a series of workshops with Public Services Boards (PSBs) across Wales on considering future trends as part of their local well-being assessments. The aim of the workshops was to explore the trends that could be driving change in the long term and how futures thinking techniques can help PSBs evaluate what that may mean for their well-being assessments.

Background

Ahead of the publication of the Future Trends Report Wales 2021 in December, the workshops provided an opportunity to reaffirm the importance of embedding long-term thinking when assessing local well-being.

Under the Well-being of Future Generations Act, PSBs must publish an assessment of the state of economic, social, environmental and cultural well-being in their areas no later than the date of an ordinary local government election. Their local well-being plans must be published within a year of those elections.

The assessment must include predictions of likely future trends that may impact the well-being of the area, and refer to the Future Trends Report to ensure the long-term needs of the area are taken into account.

Exploring the dynamics of change

The aim of the workshops was to provide an opportunity for PSBs to discuss the key trends that will be featured in the Future Trends Report, to what extent these trends may relate to the various regions within Wales, and how they may affect planning for the future. 

Workshop attendees were provided with a list of likely trends and were asked to complete an impact-certainty matrix using the digital collaboration platform MURAL. Categorising the trends in this way can help identify what next steps, if any, are required (see Figure 1). This futures exercise required attendees to consider what the impact of each trend would be on their local area and think about how certain they are about the impact, and how important they think it will be in terms of affecting well-being. Officials supported the PSB attendees in exploring the potential impacts of a specific trend where they felt the potential impact was important but uncertain. Some key questions were asked during the workshop:

• What could the potential outcome of this trend be?
• Do you consider this trend an opportunity or a threat?
• What action can you take to harness this opportunity or mitigate this threat?
• Who else do you need to engage with to help you better understand the issue or take action?

Some key principles to consider were also outlined in the workshop, including:

Embracing and managing uncertainty

When dealing with uncertainty, the more you think about how different scenarios could play out, the more questions and uncertainties you are likely to uncover. The future is an uncertain place and the aim of futures thinking is not about how to find the ‘right’ answer but about how to make the best possible decisions by thinking about all the possibilities, and by flushing out potential assumptions and biases.

Involving others

It is important to involve people with an interest in the well-being of the area to better understand the potential impacts of trends. Incorporating diverse perspectives will challenge existing assumptions and will uncover blind spots. Anyone who is likely to use the outputs of the assessment should be involved in their development if possible.

Moving to more conscious futures thinking

‘Futures thinking’, or ‘scenario planning’ is something humans do every day – we make decisions based what we expect to happen as a result. It is important to remember that we are not passive observers; we have a role in determining the shape of the future. 

The outcome

The 90-minute workshops helped start to uncover the trends that PSBs need to think about, to monitor, and those which are important for the well-being of an area but have an uncertain outcome. The workshops helped strengthen the understanding of the trends, identify some initial knowledge gaps, and helped attendees consider additional stakeholders to involve going forward. The workshop also gave attendees practical experience of a futures-based exercise. We hope this can act as a blueprint for further such exercises within the PSBs.  

The futures exercise used during the workshops was based on the ‘Driver Mapping’ tool included in the UK Government’s Futures Toolkit. This exercise represents just one of many different tools that can help embed long-term strategic thinking within the local well-being assessment process. Many futures tools are flexible, and can be adapted as required. We would encourage readers to explore some of the other futures tools and resources available:

• Three horizons: A toolkit to help you think and plan for the long-term
• A brief guide to futures thinking and foresight
• UK Government: Trends Deck Spring 2021
• Global Centre for Public Service Excellence: Foresight – The Manual
• WcVA – Building Better Futures: Toolkit
• Future Trends Report
• Futures for Wales
• Shaping the Trends of Our Time
• Sustainable Development Goals Report
• The Global Risks Report 2021