University of Warwick: Relaxation of NPIs as vaccination proceeds, 2 February 2021
Forecast paper prepared by University of Warwick on the impact of vaccinations tabled at SAGE 79.
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Modelling from the University of Warwick on the impact of vaccinations and easing of restrictions. It was considered at SAGE 79 on 4 February 2021.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the corresponding contribution from Imperial College London Strategies for gradually lifting NPIs in parallel to COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in the UK and the SPI-M-O summary of modelling on easing restrictions both also released under SAGE 79.
Updated SPI-M-O statements on modelling on easing restrictions were also discussed at SAGE 80 and at SAGE 81:
- SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling on scenario for easing restrictions, 6 February 2021
- SPI-M: Summary of modelling on roadmap scenarios, 17 February 2021
These also link to updated modelling papers from Warwick and Imperial.
Both this and the corresponding paper from Imperial consider strategies for gradually lifting NPIs in parallel to the COVID-19 vaccine roll out.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.