Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Tuesday 23 Apr - Thursday 2 May
This period will be dominated by high pressure to the northwest of the UK and lower pressure to the southeast over the near continent, and the extent to which of these systems dominates at any particular time. The wind will probably therefore predominantly come from a northerly or easterly direction, so temperatures at least in the east are likely to remain around or a little below average, with any warmer conditions generally further west - and with the sun quite strong, it could feel very warm at times. There should be a reasonable amount of dry weather around, especially in the north and west, but some rain or showers are likely at times, most-likely in the south and east, but amounts are expected to be modest.
Friday 3 May - Friday 17 May
During the early part of May high pressure will probably remain close to the north or northwest UK, with the driest conditions here. Further south and east, especially at first, there is a greater chance of some showers at times. As we move further into May signals are finely balanced between drier than average and wetter than average conditions. As such fairly typical conditions are likely, with some good spells of dry weather just about anywhere, but also some more unsettled, showery interludes. Temperatures overall will probably be near normal, rising through the period, and could trend toward the warm side of average later, with warm days most likely in the west.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).