Britain “will be more or less back to normal for the summer”, a top scientist predicted today as the vaccine rollout continued.
SAGE’s Andrew Hayward said the inoculation programme offered a key to easing the lockdown.
Figures tonight showed 10,490,487 people have received first doses.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: “Today we passed the threshold of one in five of the population who have been jabbed already.”
The UK remains on track to complete jabs of the top four priority groups by February 15, he added.
Coronavirus cases continued to fall, with 20,634 recorded – down 26% on a rolling seven-day average. And 2,375 Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospital, down 23%.
The UK death toll rose by 915, down 17%, to 110,250.
Prof Hayward, professor of infectious disease epidemiology and inclusion health research at University College London, believed the increase in vaccinations will plot a path out of the shutdown.
He said: “Once the most vulnerable people, particularly those over-50 and those with chronic illnesses, are vaccinated then yes, I think we can see a significant return to normality.
“I think what we’ll see is a phased opening up as vaccination levels increase. Then we’ll be more or less back to normal for the summer, I would imagine.”
Pressure is mounting on Boris Johnson to publish a lockdown exit plan. The PM has vowed to outline a strategy in the week beginning February 22.
Schools will reopen first, with face-to-face lessons in England due to resume from March 8. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the rate of the fall in cases fuelled hopes curbs on households’ mixing could go next month – with pupils back before March 8.
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He said: “I think there could well be a case for opening schools sooner – I particularly think schools for children under 11 years of age, where the evidence that they contribute to the spread of the epidemic in the wider population is a lot lower.”
Prof Hunter thought diners could return to restaurants “probably around the same time [March], maybe April”.
It comes amid claims Rishi Sunak told allies Britain was approaching a “fat lady sings moment” for the easing of curbs.
An “ally” of Mr Sunak quoted by the Daily Telegraph said: “Rishi remains where he has been throughout the pandemic – he is pro-opening as quickly and as safely as possible. This needs to be the last time that we do this.”
Labour said the reported claims, less than a month before the Budget, were “so irresponsible”.
Shadow Public Health Minister Alex Norris said Mr Sunak’s “disastrous decision to block public health measures [last year] helped give Britain the worst death toll in Europe and the worst recession of any major economy”.
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Bridget Phillipson tweeted: “You can’t protect the economy during a pandemic unless you protect public health.”
However, a source close to the Chancellor said they were “absolutely not things he would say”.
Tory MP Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group of lockdown-sceptic Conservatives, claimed curbs could be lifted by the end of May.
He said: “Back-of-the-envelope calculations based on two million doses a week, you could get the top nine groups first doses, and top four groups second doses, all done by the end of May.”
Mr Johnson’s spokesman said: “It remains the PM’s view we want to start easing lockdown restrictions and we are keen to do that from March 8.”
NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson warned services were still at “full stretch” and cautioned against relaxing measures too early, adding “the NHS has barely crested the peak”.
Prof Helen Rees, of the World Health Organisation’s emergency committee for Covid, believed masks and social distancing will have to continue.
She said: “I think we are going to be well into next year before we see a change.”
Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi fears coronavirus will go through unvaccinated groups “like wildfire”, amid concerns over take-up levels among ethnic minority communities.
A coronavirus mutation detected in Liverpool has been found in Preston and West Lancashire, with anyone feeling unwell advised to get a test.