Republican candidates who have either questioned or denied the 2020 presidential election result are favored to win 189 midterm elections, according to fresh analysis by Newsweek.
Voters go to the polls on November 8 in a high-stakes contest, with one campaign group saying that the "idea of free and fair elections" is effectively on the ballot paper.
A previous investigation by The Washington Post found there are 291 Republicans "election deniers" who have "denied or questioned the outcome of the last presidential election" standing across the United States. This constitutes more than half the total number of GOP candidates who are running for office.
Out of the 291 Republican "election deniers," counting both Congressional and state races, it concluded that 171 are "favored" to win, with another 48 running in "close races."
Further analysis by Newsweek found that, of the 48 in tight contests, 18 are more likely than not to win.
The analysis covers elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives, along with votes for the governor, attorney general, lieutenant governor and secretary of state positions at state level. Some of these offices will play a key role in certifying the 2024 presidential election.
According to election site FiveThirtyEight, founded by polling guru Nate Silver, out of the 48 "close races" involving election deniers, the Republicans are favored to win 16 contests for Congress and state governorships.
Other state level positions aren't covered by FiveThirtyEight, but by looking at polling, Newsweek found the GOP is favored to win two, specifically Burt Jones's bid to become lieutenant governor of Georgia and Mark Finchem's race to become secretary of state for Arizona.
Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed the 2020 presidential election was "rigged" against him, despite numerous courts and independent polling experts rejecting claims of fraud.
On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters, believing the election had been stolen, stormed Congress in a bid to stop the result from being officially certified. One Trump supporter was shot dead and dozens of police officers were injured in the ensuing violence.
Reed Galen, co-founder of anti-Trump conservative group The Lincoln Project, told Newsweek that the victory of "election deniers" in November could help Trump regain the presidency in 2024 even if he loses.
Galen said: "Election deniers will destroy confidence in our democratic institutions because they don't care about the truth and are uninterested in governing. Their only purpose is to obtain power so they can reinstate Donald Trump as President in 2024 regardless of the outcome of the vote. If they take office, they will throw the idea of free and fair elections out the window to get the results they want."
Gummer Ramer, from the Defend Democracy Together campaign, expressed similar concerns, saying: "Across the country, at all levels of government, election denying candidates easily made their way through the primary. This is an indictment of the modern-day GOP.
"To win a Republican primary, you have to lie and promote conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. This constant sowing of distrust in election results is absolutely terrible for our democracy."
A senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, Michael Sozan, urged Americans to vote for "candidates who will defend democracy."
He told Newsweek: "The guardrails of democracy are being severely tested in many ways, including by election deniers who are running for positions that oversee the election process. It's like an arsonist asking to manage the fire department.
"Americans who value democracy must elect candidates who will defend democracy instead of candidates who spread the dangerous myth of widespread voter fraud and try to sabotage valid election results."
One of those listed as an "election denier" by The Washington Post is Adam Laxalt, the GOP Senate candidate who is facing Democratic incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in the battleground state of Nevada.
Following Trump's defeat in the 2020 presidential election, Laxalt claimed there had been widespread "fraud" in Nevada, with Republicans filing several lawsuits in an unsuccessful bid to overturn the result. He told NBC News: "There's no question they rigged the election."
Laxalt has said that he wants to ensure Americans have confidence in the electoral process. "A majority of Nevada voters know that we didn't have a secure election," Laxalt told One America News Network, a pro-Trump cable news channel, in January, according to NBC News. "If we can't have fair elections, then people are not going to turn out. They're not going to believe in the system."
Sigalle Reshef, a spokesperson for the Cortez Masto campaign, told Newsweek: "Adam Laxalt led Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election in Nevada, and he's only doubled down on the Big Lie since – even after it helped fuel the January 6 insurrection. Laxalt said he will once again attempt to reverse the will of Nevada voters if he doesn't like the results of this election because he will do anything for power."
The Republican Party and Adam Laxalt have been contacted for comment.
Update 10/21/2022, 10:30 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional context.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more
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