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THE 1998 ELECTIONS: CONGRESS -- THE OVERVIEW

THE 1998 ELECTIONS: CONGRESS -- THE OVERVIEW; G.O.P. IN SCRAMBLE OVER BLAME FOR POOR SHOWING AT THE POLLS

Alison Mitchell and

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November 5, 1998, Section A, Page 1Buy Reprints
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Stunned by the Democratic resurgence in the midterm elections, Congressional Republicans tore into one another yesterday over who was to blame for their failure to make the traditional opposition party gains in an off-year election.

The soul-searching and recriminations -- and a possibility of Congressional leadership challenges -- came as election results showed that Republicans had been unable to increase their 55-to-45-vote margin in the Senate and that Democrats had picked up five seats in the House.

The Democratic surge was the first time since 1934 that the President's party had gained seats in a midterm election and it whittled the Republican lead in the House down to 12 votes and the majority to 6. The Democratic victories were even more remarkable in a year marked by the monthslong scandal over President Clinton's affair with Monica S. Lewinsky.

The Republicans' new 223-to-211 majority (assuming a Democrat leading in Oregon holds on to win), with one independent, amounted to the smallest Congressional majority since the Republican-led Congress of 1953, the last time Republicans controlled the House until they captured it again in 1994.

With attention now shifting to the House Judiciary Committee and its impeachment inquiry into Mr. Clinton, Representative Henry J. Hyde of Illinois told fellow Republicans on the panel in a conference call yesterday that the only witness Republicans were likely to call was the independent counsel, Kenneth W. Starr. There were reports last night that Mr. Hyde might call another witness, an expert on the meaning of testifying under oath to help the committee in deciding whether Mr. Clinton committed perjury.

Mr. Hyde, the chairman, said he hoped to have the committee vote on possible articles of impeachment by Thanksgiving, an act that would put the issue in the hands of the Speaker, Newt Gingrich. Committee Democrats declined comment until they could discuss Mr. Hyde's plan.

Trying to put the best face on the situation facing Republicans, Mr. Gingrich said in Marietta, Ga., that the Republicans had held onto the House for three elections in a row, for the first time since the election of 1932. But furious rank-and-file Republicans burned up the telephone lines to each other as they considered whether to mount leadership challenges in both chambers in the next few weeks.

''We've got to reach out and have more than Southern white males running the Washington Republican Party,'' said Representative Joe Scarborough, a conservative from Florida. He said Republicans this year had been left without any accomplishment to run on. ''We need an agenda first of all,'' he said. ''We went an entire calendar year without an agenda.''

Representative Christopher Shays, a moderate from Connecticut, called the election a devastating loss and said: ''There are going to be major changes in our leadership. All segments of our party want to see change.''

At the White House, Mr. Clinton called the election results a vindication of his party's policies. ''If you look at all the results,'' he said, ''they are clear and unambiguous. The American people want their business, their concerns, their children, their families, their future addressed here. That's what the message of the election was. ''

But the most immediate issue facing Congress is how to pursue the inquiry into Mr. Clinton in light of public resistance to removing him from office. And the Republican majority is now so slim that there is little chance the 218 votes required for impeachment can be assembled.

In a statement released yesterday, Mr. Hyde said: ''The committee continues to have a clear Constitutional duty to complete its work in a fair and expeditious manner. Our duty has not changed because the Constitution has not changed.''

But Senator Robert G. Torricelli, Democrat of New Jersey, said the election results guaranteed that impeachment would fail. ''I think any serious effort to remove President Clinton from office is effectively over,'' he said.

From the other side of the aisle, Representative Rick A. Lazio, a Long Island Republican, said, ''The inquiry should be wrapped up expeditiously, fairly and it ought to be resolved in the immediate future.''

For the past year, House Republicans struggled to keep control of the House with a 228-to-206 majority and to find consensus among their party's competing factions. With their newly reduced numbers, the Republican leadership will need to carry out a tortuous balancing act to unite a hard-core conservative faction wanting a more agressive social agenda with a bloc of moderates who want to return to the center.

Any small Republican faction will now have enormous leverage. The new arithmetic of the House may even lead to Democrats' and moderate Republicans' forming majorities on issues.

Already seeing some of the possibilities, Representative Peter King of Long Island, said Northeastern Republicans would be strengthened. ''It gives us much more leverage with the leadership and makes it easier to protect New York,'' he said.

Just two weeks ago, Mr. Gingrich had foreseen election gains of 10 seats to more than 40. Seeming uncertain yesterday, he said he had trouble accounting for the results.

''Things were happening out there that none of us fully understand -- neither party in my judgment,'' Mr. Gingrich said.

Taking his share of the blame for his party's losses, the Georgia Republican said he had misjudged how the public would recoil from the Clinton scandal and how the scandal would drown out other Republican themes. ''I mean I totally underestimated the degree to which people would just get sick of 24-hour-a-day talk television and talk radio and then the degree to which this whole scandal became just sort of disgusting by sheer repetition,'' Mr. Gingrich said.

''And as a result, I think we probably underestimated the need to really aggressively push a much stronger message about cutting taxes and saving Social Security, winning the war on drugs, reforming education and national defense.''

Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi, the majority leader, also acknowledged mistakes, saying his party had not had a clear enough message in the final 96 hours of the campaign. Mr. Lott conceded that Congress's scramble to pass a $500 billion budget hurt the Republicans.

''One of the lessons for Republicans out of this is that we need to listen more carefully to the people and we need to have a clear understanding and concise message that we do apply across the nation,'' he said in Washington.

Mr. Lott and Mr. Gingrich said Republicans would put an emphasis on tax cutting and shoring up the Social Security system.

Even as the two leaders spoke, angry rank-and-file Republicans were making telephone calls trying to decide whether to mount challenges against the Republican leaders who have steered the Congress since the Republicans assumed control four years ago.

A senior Republican Congressional staff member said the House had become a ''tinderbox'' of intrigue. And Mr. Scarborough, the lawmaker from Florida, said: ''The long-distance charges in Washington offices probably are going through the roof today. Everybody's calling everybody. Everybody recognizes that something's terribly wrong with the direction of Washington Republicans when Republican governors are doing so well in New York, Massachusetts, Florida and Texas.''

Mr. Gingrich has faced down an uprising before, foiling a coup attempt against him by disgruntled conservatives and members of his leadership team in the summer of 1997. Any move to remove him remains a long shot. But with House leadership elections set for mid-November, Republicans said this time the dissatisfaction in their caucus had crossed ideological lines to include moderates like Mr. Shays.

''We got shellacked,'' said Representative Christopher B. Cannon, a conservative from Utah. ''We beat ourselves because we had no agenda.''

Republicans were discussing possible challenges to Mr. Gingrich, his second-in-command, Representative Dick Armey of Texas, and others in the leadership team. Some were envisioning trying to run an entire new ticket headed by Representative Bob Livingston of Louisiana, the Appropriations Committee chairman, and including Representative Steve Largent, an Oklahoma conservative.

Asked whether the election results could cost him the speakership, Mr. Gingrich said, ''I'm not particularly concerned.'' Republicans close to him said they expected the anger against him to dissipate.

In the Senate, where leadership races take place in early December, some Republicans were talking of mounting challenges against mid-level leaders.

Several senators expressed particular pique toward the re-election chairman, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who poured party dollars and much of his own time into trying to defeat the Democratic champion of campaign finance overhaul, Russell D. Feingold of Wisconsin. Mr. Feingold won in a close race.

Some lawmakers yesterday approached Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska to see if he would replace Mr. McConnell. Mr. Hagel confirmed that he had talked to more than eight senators and was considering whether to challenge Mr. McConnell.

Senator Hagel lambasted the leadership for the election outcome. ''This is a big loss for us,'' Mr. Hagel said. ''We squandered a very historic opportunity last night. To just break even is a loss.''

Most incumbents coasted to victory. But some will not be returning. Five House Republicans were defeated: Vince Snowbarger of Kansas, Bill Redmond of New Mexico, Jon Fox of Pennsylvania, Michael Pappas of New Jersey, and Rick White of Washington. One Democrat also lost his re-election bid, Representative Jay W. Johnson of Wisconsin.

The new House members include 17 Republicans and at least 22 Democrats. David Wu, a Democrat was leading Molly Bordonaro, a Republican, for a House seat in Oregon but the victory announcement was not expected until Friday, after absentee ballots are counted.

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 1 of the National edition with the headline: THE 1998 ELECTIONS: CONGRESS -- THE OVERVIEW; G.O.P. IN SCRAMBLE OVER BLAME FOR POOR SHOWING AT THE POLLS. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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