The nights are closing in and so is the virus, but not all is bleak

I’ve been thinking about the image above for a few weeks now.

When I first passed the house just a few hundred meters from my own and saw the young couple sitting there working alone, it depressed me slightly - a reminder of the distance and atomisation the virus has forced on us.

But images seldom tell the whole story and now, every time I walk past and see Diogo and Silvia working opposite one another I smile. They remind me of resilience and good character of the neighbourhood, a place which has in many ways changed for the better over the last six months.

They only arrived in London from Sweden in January and say several neighbours have knocked on the door to check they were okay and to ask if they needed anything.

I too have got to know people I have lived close to for years but never properly conversed with and many local businesses, once a mere backstop to the big inner-city chains, are now thriving.

Many Londoners have even started saying good morning to each other, which pre-Covid was pretty much an arrestable offence.

It’s never wise to assume your personal experience is typical but there are some solid national data to take heart from even as a second wave of Covid-19 grips the country.

They point, I think, to a sensible silent majority who, while not exactly happy with the new normal, are adapting and making the best of it.

Some of the strongest evidence for the glass-half-full outlook comes from The COVID-19 Social Study, a research study run by University College London (UCL) which tracks the attitudes of more than 95,000 people across the country.

It shows that “majority compliance” (as opposed to complete compliance) with the Covid rules remains at about 90 per cent and has remained more or less stable since June.

Measures of depression, anxiety, life satisfaction, happiness, and loneliness, while still below normal, have improved markedly since the start of the pandemic and appear to be returning towards their pre-Covid averages.

“We’ve seen a huge outpouring of community support during this pandemic, says Professor Daisy Fancourt, who heads the study on the UCL website. “People have spoken to neighbours for the first time, millions have been volunteering in various capacities, and we’ve started to foster a sense of ‘community’”.

The current wave of infections is undoubtedly serious and points to tough times and many more deaths ahead, but even in those exponentially growing numbers there is cause for hope.

While recorded cases of the virus are now higher than ever, the true incidence of the virus in the country today (roughly one case for every 500 people) is a fraction of what it was in the spring, the roller-coaster charts of new cases being distorted by the boom in testing.

And even now, we may be getting on top of the new outbreak. This week two big and reliable surveys, one from Imperial College London and one from the Office of National Statistics, contain the first hints that the rule of six and other new mitigation measures may be slowing transmission.

If this is correct - and let’s hope it is - the country will once again have demonstrated that through collective action and some sacrifice we can suppress the bug and save lives.

“I’m moderately optimistic”, says Diogo, who continues to work from home with Silva having hardly known London office life. “We are learning how to live it”. 

Protect yourself and your family by learning more about Global Health Security