The UK is at risk of a new surge of coronavirus infections, experts have said, as schools and universities reopen their doors and cold weather drives people inside.
On Sunday the government reported 1,715 new cases, the highest daily number since 4 June and the highest number for a weekend day since mid-May. On Monday 1,406 new cases were reported. Numbers collected over the weekend are often lower than those for other days of the week owing to lower levels of testing and reporting delays.
Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said Sunday’s figure was “quite a big jump”. He said data for the rest of the week would be needed to get a clear idea of the scale of any uptick, but the figures tied in to a broader trend of an increase in infections in the UK since early July.
Prof Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said: “What it clearly demonstrates is we’re in a position where case numbers are going up. So we don’t have much room for manoeuvre.”
Ferguson said the reopening of schools could lead to a further rise. “I think that will pose more stress and is likely to lead to a somewhat fast increase in case numbers. And then at that point there will be a need to make potentially some difficult decisions to get on top of it,” he said.
“We do need to have a system in place to respond to those outbreaks, to implement rapid testing in schools, and measures to control spread.”
Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, also said a resurgence could be on the cards. “We are still way below where we were in the middle of March, but any increase is of concern because it means [coronavirus] is spreading,” she said. “We are definitely risking a new spike, especially now the weather is turning colder again and people are inside more.”
While some have suggested the rise in infections could largely be explained by increased testing, Hunter said the figures told a different story. “You can’t explain it all by the amount of testing,” he said. In the first seven days in July, 232 tests were done for every positive case reported, and in mid-August it was only about 164 tests per positive case, although in recent weeks the figures appear to have stabilised
Other data reveals a similar trend. Office for National Statistics figures suggest there was an increase in infections in England during July, and that it appears to have levelled off in recent weeks.
Pagel said: “Even if all the new cases were in hotspots, they are hotspots because transmission is increasing a lot in those areas. That represents spread of Covid.”
Ferguson said the rise was expected given the relaxation of lockdown measures, adding that local measures would continue to be needed where outbreaks occur, as has already been seen in Leicester and Greater Manchester.
The situation is not yet as severe as in many countries in Europe. Spain, Italy and France are all experiencing large rises in cases, leading to concerns about lockdown easing. Again, experts have said an increase in testing does not fully explain these rises.
Pagel said she was surprised the UK had not seen more infections, given the situation in Europe, but there were a number of possible explanations. “We are still doing way more home working than the rest of the continent, and we are also much less likely to go out still,” she said.
Ferguson agreed. “We have relaxed lockdown less than those countries, and later, and actually now our testing system is close to being the equal of Germany’s and it’s probably a slightly better position than France.”
Pagel said there should be checks on cafes and restaurants in the UK for measures such as social distancing, as well as on whether people returning from abroad were quarantining if instructed to do so. “We have policies that we are not actually enforcing.” She said the government’s new drive to reduce home working was “a really bad idea”.
Prof Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, said upticks in infections were more likely to be spotted when case numbers were low, but the increase in the proportion of tests coming back positive was of concern.
“We know that because we are relaxing restrictions in the broad for various reasons – schools are going back, universities are going back – we will get sparks,” he said. “It is whether or not test and trace is working well enough to stamp those out quickly.”