Covid has hit an all-time high across the UK, with almost 5 million people – one in 13 of the population – estimated to have the virus, according to the most recent official data, prompting experts to call for the return of free testing.
The figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) came on the day the government ended free rapid tests for most people in England and as tens of thousands of people were hoping to embark on Easter holidays. Many will have to pay for a test to find out if they are infected, whether they are symptomatic or not.
While UK hospitalisations and deaths are also rising, these are not in line with the spike in infections, and scientists said they expect levels to fall sharply again in April and May.
Kara Steel, a senior statistician for the ONS survey, which estimated community cases in the week ending 26 March, said the growth of the Omicron variant BA.2 was fuelling the rapid rise. The removal of Covid restrictions and a shift towards pre-pandemic behaviour are also contributing.
BA.2 is more transmissible than the original Omicron variant, BA.1, but data suggests that while infection with BA.2 after an infection with BA.1 is possible, it is very rare – at least at present.
This means the latest Covid wave is, to a large extent, sweeping through people who were not infected in the previous Omicron wave and is likely to follow a short, sharp trajectory, as has been seen in Denmark and the Netherlands, scientists said.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “I expect we’ll see rates falling quite rapidly through April and May and hopefully hospitalisations will start falling in the next week or so. Any infection that spreads rapidly peaks quickly and decreases rapidly on the other side.”
The Covid landscape is now very different from the early days of the pandemic: 68% of UK over-12s have had three doses of a Covid jab, and while vaccines have not severed the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths, they have weakened it.
However, hospitalisations have reached record highs in Scotland in recent days, with 19,534 Covid patients on wards across the UK on Wednesday. While the proportion primarily being treated for coronavirus has fallen since the arrival of Omicron, both the numbers of people in hospital “with” and “because of” Covid are rising.
Dr David Strain, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter medical school, said he was now seeing people testing positive with Covid for longer – meaning lengthier hospital stays and staff absences. Infection levels are rising at a time when vaccine-based immunity, particularly among older people, is waning, he warned.
Plans to end free lateral flow tests (LFTs) and other measures were made in the light of BA.1, but BA.2 has changed the picture, he said: “Until the [spring] booster programme can be implemented and evaluated, I think [it is] too early to be getting rid of free tests.” He said mask wearing should also return.
Speaking at a Royal Society of Medicine conference on Thursday, Prof Devi Sridhar, of the University of Edinburgh, also voiced disquiet about the end of free tests. “Looking at the next few months in Britain, we’re in a pretty good position compared to most countries in the world. [But] we’re still having a couple of hundred people die every day and letting testing go – I’m quite concerned about that.”
Dr Julian Tang, a clinical virologist at Leicester University, said he believed the mask mandate, surveillance studies and ongoing free testing could have been kept for longer – although he acknowledged other demands on resources and funding. “I think we probably have to ride this out – as part of learning to live with Covid-19 as it becomes more seasonal and endemic – as we do with seasonal flu,” he said.
Prof Andrew Hayward, co-director of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, said that although LFTs have contributed to control, uptake had been patchy, meaning their removal was unlikely to make a major difference to overall rates.
But he added: “Lateral flow tests remain useful in high-risk settings such as health care and social care and … prisons and homeless venues. They also remain helpful as a means of protecting vulnerable contacts by testing before visiting, particularly during periods when infection levels are so high and of self-diagnosing symptomatic infection and isolating appropriately.”
According to the latest ONS data, based on swabs from randomly selected households, about 7.6% (one in 13) of the population in England had Covid in the week ending 26 March – the highest figure recorded by the survey since it began in April 2020.
Infection levels have risen across all regions of England, but were highest in the south-west, where 9.4% are estimated to have had Covid.
Infection levels have plateaued among children and young adults but continued to rise among those aged 25 and over, with about 6.6% of people aged 70 and over infected – a record high for that age group.
Infection levels remain high in Scotland and Northern Ireland, with about one in 12 and one in 15 people infected respectively, and have continued to rise in Wales, where they have reached one in 14 – the highest level since the survey began there in July 2020.
LFTs are now available from high street shops such as Boots and Tesco. A Guardian search of online marketplaces on Friday found little sign of individuals hoping to sell kits they got free from the NHS, as seen earlier in the year. Online marketplace eBay has previously said Covid tests were banned for sale on its site.