The first time Carol Whitmore ever had sex, she got pregnant.
It was 1973, and Whitmore was a teenager. Whitmore’s parents were in and out of trouble with the police, Whitmore said. When they told Whitmore they would help her raise the child, she thought, nope.
Instead, Whitmore got an abortion. That same year, the US supreme court legalized abortion nationwide in Roe v Wade.
“I made that choice myself, and to this day, I don’t regret it,” Whitmore told the Guardian. A half-century later, Whitmore is still staunchly supportive of abortion rights. She’s recently taken to collecting petitions in support of a Florida ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.
Whitmore is also a deeply committed Republican, who has held multiple positions in Florida local government. For her, abortion rights are part and parcel of her Republican worldview.
“Do you want more government overreach to tell us how to take care of ourselves?” Whitmore said. She’s not the only conservative who feels this way, she said: “Everybody I talked to says: ‘Well, we aren’t coming out publicly, but we are definitely going to sign that petition, we are definitely going to vote for that amendment to be passed.’”
In the year and a half since the US supreme court overturned Roe in June 2022, Republicans have floundered over how to handle abortion. The issue is widely thought to have cost them the promised “red wave” in the 2022 midterms, as well as control of the Virginia state legislature in 2023. Abortion rights supporters have triumphed on every abortion-related ballot measure since Roe’s demise, including in states that are traditionally believed to be conservative strongholds like Kansas, Kentucky and, most recently, Ohio.
Experts still have questions about the driving forces behind these victories. Was it a surge in Democratic turnout? Or Republicans breaking with their party platform on abortion? And will abortion convince Republicans to leave the GOP behind entirely?
The outcome of the 2024 elections, when roughly a dozen states may vote on abortion referendums, could hinge on the answers.
“It may be in the narrowest sense possible to win with only Democrats, but that’s not even on our radar,” Jodi Liggett, the senior adviser for Reproductive Freedom for All Arizona, said late last year. Liggett’s organization is championing a proposal for a 2024 abortion-related ballot measure in Arizona. “I think if anything, you’re for sure gonna need independents,” she said. “And we think people actually agree across parties, on the pure issue of who should be deciding: physicians, medical professionals and families, not politicians.”
Democrats, who once avoided the issue of abortion in election campaigns, are now banking on the issue to amplify anger and turnout overall. Yet in interviews with eight Republican or formerly Republican women who support abortion rights, hailing from six states across the country, a complex portrait emerged, suggesting Republicans might not be the silver bullet that Democrats are hoping for in November.
When the US supreme court first legalized abortion nationwide in Roe v Wade, neither party was unified in its position on the issue. Over the next five decades, Republicans grew increasingly opposed to the procedure. Although abortion rights are broadly popular in the United States today, support is sharply split by party: while 80% of Democrats say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, just 38% of Republicans say the same, according to polling from the Pew Research Center.
Still, that is a significant fraction of Republicans. Men and women make up equal shares of these abortion rights-supporting Republicans – but women consistently vote at higher rates than men, making them a critical voting bloc for abortion-rights supporters to win.
For Stephanie Tyler, a longtime Republican in Nevada, Roe’s overturning “was the proverbial last straw”.
“I believe so fundamentally in a woman’s right to choose,” Tyler said, adding: “Any party that would make that a key piece of its platform, and then support a supreme court that obviously pushed that as a primary agenda, is not my party.”
Weeks after Roe fell, Tyler dropped her affiliation with the Republican party and registered as an independent.
‘There will be no Republicans left’
Some prominent Republican women have started to urge the GOP to stop focusing on banning abortion so much – including Ann Coulter, the conservative firebrand not generally known for moderation. “The demand for anti-abortion legislation just cost Republicans another crucial race,” Coulter tweeted in April. “Pro-lifers: WE WON. Abortion is not a ‘constitutional right’ anymore! Please stop pushing strict limits on abortion, or there will be no Republicans left.”
This week, Donald Trump similarly warned that Republicans have been “decimated” over extreme abortion stances, even as he took credit for what he called the “miracle” of overturning Roe.
Many of the interviewed women shared Coulter’s concern about what the GOP’s hardline stance on abortion would mean for the party’s future.
Sandy Senn, a Republican state senator from South Carolina, , believes abortion should be outlawed after the first trimester of pregnancy (with exceptions). But last year, she banded together with the four other female senators in South Carolina’s state legislature – two Republicans, a Democrat and an independent – to stop a total abortion ban from passing in South Carolina. They called themselves the “sister senators”.
At one point, the sister senators filibustered for three days. Their efforts worked, for a while. By the end of the year, though, South Carolina had banned abortion past six weeks of pregnancy.
“You cannot have laws that are going to thumb a group of people down, because they’re ultimately not going to listen, and they’re going to find a workaround,” Senn said. “If we continue down this path – we hate gays, we hate women, we hate transsexuals – if we become the party of hate, we lose independents. We’re gonna lose young voters.”
She continued: “You’re gonna see moderate Republicans walk away from the party on certain issues, or maybe not even vote top-ballot or in some elections, just because they feel like they can’t.”
Gauging how many Republicans will break away from the party to support abortion rights, though, is complicated by much of the GOP’s recent tack to the far right. Kelly Dittmar, the director of research and a scholar at the center for American women and politics at Rutgers University–Camden, said that it’s become increasingly difficult to even locate moderate Republican women, either as voters or as elected officials. So many have simply left the party.
“Women in general have been more likely to be liberal, and that includes among Republicans,” Dittmar said. “In surveys, it’s hard to compare Republicans over time, because you’re actually talking about a really different group of people. Instead of seeing Republican women say, ‘Oh, we don’t agree with the party’, they just don’t even come up in the count, because they don’t identify at the beginning of a survey as Republican.”
Mirabel Batjer is one of those women. She left the GOP around 2010, after supporting Barack Obama for president in 2008.
“I just decided that it was silly for me to pretend any longer that it was a party for me, because it certainly was not,” said Batjer, who now calls herself a “rabid liberal Democrat”. “I was almost a single-issue voter when it came to being concerned about Roe v Wade and what the supreme court could do. And I guess my fears were right.”
Some Republicans, such as Kellyanne Conway, a former Trump adviser, have suggested the GOP should pivot to emphasizing contraception or risk losing in 2024. At a GOP presidential debate, candidate Nikki Haley, who has urged “consensus” on abortion, asked the audience: “Can’t we all agree contraception should be available?”
But that plan might not get far in the modern Republican party. Anti-abortion activists, who have long been wedded to the GOP and have helped propel it to electoral victories across the country, have mixed views on hormonal birth control. The powerful Students for Life of America, for example, has labeled oral contraceptives and IUDs “abortifacients”, meaning that they cause abortions, which is false.
This year, Senn was enraged by the introduction of a South Carolina bill to require that parents give consent before doctors can fulfill minors’ requests for medication, including birth control – in apparent defiance of a federal program, Title X, that allows minors to receive confidential family-planning help.
“Here they are, making an attempt to basically keep women barefoot and pregnant, because now they don’t even want them to have birth control,” Senn said. “The bill is asinine, and women aren’t going to put up with that.”
But multiple Republican women who support abortion rights said they prefer to stick with the GOP come November, even if they vote for access to the procedure in states that are holding referendums. Even those who were undecided on or opposed to Trump said that they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Joe Biden.
Yuripzy Morgan, a Republican who ran to represent Maryland’s third congressional district in 2022, supports some access to abortion. But, she said, abortion is not a “primary issue of mine” when she enters the voting booth.
“When I say it is a complicated topic, I don’t say that because it’s the speaking point. I’ve felt the baby kick in my tummy. I’ve given birth. I know what that feels like,” Morgan said. “One of my biggest pet peeves is when people make this a black-and-white issue.”
Melissa Deckman, the CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, doesn’t believe women are ditching the Republican party in significant numbers because of abortion. According to her organization’s research, Republican women remain much more likely to think that abortion should be illegal in all cases.
Instead, it’s Democrats who now feel more strongly than ever about supporting abortion access. Before Roe fell, most Democrats did not consider abortion their top issue; post-Roe, it’s become a litmus test for half of Democrats, according to research from the Public Religion Research Institute. If anything, Deckman says, Democrats are likely to benefit from boosted turnout among independents or relatively weak Democrats.
“Generally speaking, most Republicans are opposed to abortion. That’s become the party line and party voters really feel that way,” Deckman said. “I don’t think there’s any indication that there’s mass exodus from the GOP because of the decision that happened.”
Even Whitmore, the Florida woman who had an abortion in 1973, said that access to the procedure will not be a factor in her vote for president.
“The president or whoever is not going to decide this issue,” she said. “It’s going to be the citizens of Florida.”