Morganza Spillway opening likely; farmers can expect total loss

BATON ROUGE — Gov. John Bel Edwards and Col. Michael Clancy expect the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to open the Morganza Spillway June 2, flooding 24,000 acres of mostly farmland in the Atchafalaya River Basin and wiping out all the crops there.

The corps will make its final decision on May 28.

"It's fair to say it's more likely than not," Edwards said of the opening.

Clancy, commander of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' New Orleans District, and other officials joined Edwards Thursday at the Capitol for a press conference to brief the public.

Current forecasts show the Morganza will be overtopped June 5 unless the spillway is opened.

The corps can't allow the Morganza to be overtopped because it would render the spillway useless and unsafe.

The Mississippi River has been above flood stage in Louisiana for more than four months at some points, the most consecutive days in modern history.

MORE:Mississippi River reaches record flood duration: 'I'm on pins and needles'

Although the river has crested or is cresting this week, new forecasts are for another rise to begin that could top the Morganza next month because of predicted heavy rainfall of as much as 5 inches in the Midwest in the coming days.

Louisiana Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain said his agency is advising farmers to move their livestock, crawfish traps and equipment out of harm's way.

"We expect a total loss of the crops planted (if the spillway is opened)," Strain said. "There will be a loss of a great deal of agriculture crops."

If the corps decides to open the Morganza, which is located in Pointe Coupee Parish, it would be only the third time since the spillway was built in 1954.

"It's a rather historic moment," Edwards said. 

The corps has already opened the Bonnet Carré Spillway, which diverts water from New Orleans to keep the city dry, for the second time this year, the first time that's happened since it was built following the epic 1927 flood.

Unlike the Bonnet Carré, which spills into Lake Pontchartrain, the Morganza spills into the Atchafalaya River Basin, which is mostly farmland and wildlife habitat with some cabins.

The Morganza was previously opened in 1973 and during the Great Flood of 2011, when the Mississippi River reached a record high.

Stakeholders affected by the Morganza opening were notified about the possibility of its opening Wednesday.

Greg Hilburn covers state politics for the USA TODAY Network of Louisiana. Follow him on Twitter @GregHilburn1