Nicola Sturgeon, SNP and independence’s ‘pandemic popularity bounce’ may have ‘worn off at the wrong time’
A PANDEMIC popularity bounce for Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP and indy could have “worn off” at the worst time, a polls guru reveals.
Professor Sir John Curtice told how “the most likely explanation” for last year’s surge in support for Scotland going it alone was a perception that the First Minister had handled the Covid crisis well.
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But he explained the advantage — which took Yes to over 50 per cent in 20 consecutive opinion surveys — was likely to evaporate in the run-up to May’s Holyrood election.
Sir John, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told how the pro-indy lead had “probably waned” due to a slight drop in Ms Sturgeon’s popularity ratings and a return to traditional party politics.
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Recent polls also show the SNP’s support, which boomed last year, falling to similar levels to 2016 when they narrowly missed out on an overall majority — seen as key for securing an IndyRef2 mandate
And the situation has been made more uncertain for Ms Sturgeon following the dramatic return of Alex Salmond with his new Alba Party.
His candidates are expected to nick some SNP votes for the regional list vote — further jeopardising an SNP majority.
Prof Curtice said “The pandemic, and people’s reactions to its handling, looks like the most likely explanation for the rise last year.
"Now some of that advantage may have worn off and that may at least be part of the explanation for support for independence being back down to the 49/50 mark.
“The pandemic has been by far the most high-profile and important policy challenge facing the devolved institutions since 1999.
“All of the crucial decisions about where we can go, when we can go, what we can do, that affect all our individual lives are being made in Edinburgh. If any policy is going to change people’s views about a subject then this is it.”
Sir John said a previous increase in indy support in 2019 occurred “entirely among Remain voters” and was “clearly to do with Brexit”.
But he told how the more recent spike in favour of Yes appeared to have occurred evenly across those who voted Remain or Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.
And he continued: “For me, the best question on this issue is to ask voters whether or not they think an independent Scotland would have handled the pandemic better.
“Back in August, and as recently as January, that question identified 20 per cent of people who voted No in 2014, who said they thought the pandemic would have been handled better as an independent country, while only about four per cent of Yes voters said they thought it would be handled worse.”
Separately, a Covid social study run by University College London shows Scots’ confidence in the Holyrood administration’s pandemic performance is significantly higher than English opinion on the Westminster government’s handling. But confidence levels have also dropped in recent months.
UCL’s Dr Elise Paul said: “There are several possible reasons for the decrease in confidence.
“The public may have felt the restrictions put in place were either too much or not enough, or maybe they were not the sort of restrictions they felt were appropriate.
“If the public had felt the restrictions were put in place too late, we would expect to see confidence in the government to have decreased in adva-nce of new restrictions.”
Dr Paul said Scotland and Wales “saw clear increases in confidence in government when restrictions were lifted last summer”.
She added: “However, early last summer we saw this trend did not take place in England, likely due to the UK Government’s handling of the Dominic Cummings situation.”
Pointing to incidents like the resignation of Scotland’s Chief Medical Officer Catherine Calderwood 24 hours after The Scottish Sun on Sunday revealed her lockdown breach, Dr Paul said: “In contrast, Scottish Government responses to non-compliance by officials seems to have been stronger.”
Sir John also told how Ms Sturgeon — who has appeared more cautious than the PM in relaxing lockdowns — has used her Covid briefings with the media and in parliament to prove she can “cope well in a national crisis”.
He said this contrasted with Mr Johnson, who lacked the “skillset” for dealing with the pandemic as he tends to be more upbeat but often fails to deliver.
Yet Sir John said both governments have made the same errors in handling the crisis.
But Ms Sturgeon has created a better perception of herself. He said: “Boris tended to talk AT people, Nicola has tended to talk TO people. Boris comes from the rhetoric ‘over promise and under deliver’. Sturgeon proved herself to be a politician who could cope well in a national crisis.
“Boris didn’t — his forte is rhetoric, sunshine, telling every- body the world is going to be better. He had the wrong skillset for the crisis.
“Because, when it comes to the objective reality, while Scotland is a bit better than England, a lot of the same mistakes were made.”
The academic said Ms Sturgeon’s positive public rating has come down since last summer, while their negative view of Mr Johnson is “slightly better than it was but it’s still pretty negative”.
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And Sir John said this — and the start of the election campaign — may explain why support for the SNP and indy has “probably waned”.
He said politics is now dividing along party lines, adding: “We shouldn’t be surprised if old loyalties begin to target the strings of some voters.
“And now, as they hear whatever party they usually support criticise Ms Sturgeon, etc, they go, ‘Well maybe not’.”
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Asked if this was bad timing for Ms Sturgeon’s party, he said: “Of course, absolutely.”
christine.lavelle@the-sun.co.uk
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