Why Britain’s coronavirus death rate might not be worst in Europe’s as experts blast ‘pointless’ official comparisons
BRITAIN might not have the worst coronavirus death toll in Europe as experts have blasted pointless comparisons of the figures.
Nearly 37,000 people have been killed by Covid-19 in the UK, but experts have said drawing parallels with other nations is unhelpful and premature.
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Experts said there won't be a way of accurately comparing figures for months as the threat of a second wave also looms over Europe.
Comparisons between countries' death rates is like comparing apples and oranges.
States have varying methods of counting coronavirus cases and deaths, along with vastly different circumstances surrounding individual outbreaks.
Nations also are at different stages of dealing with the virus, potentially facing spikes in the future due to changes such as in the climate as the year rolls on.
The comparisons are also premature as the pandemic is still continuing, and experts have said you cannot draw comparisons until the virus has run its course.
Sir David Spiegelhalter, a statistician and a professor at the University of Cambridge, said: "This is not Eurovision — it’s pretty pointless to try to rank them."
Sweden for example has not imposed a lockdown, and has now reported 33,843 cases and 4,029 deaths from its relatively small population of 10.2million.
This far exceeds its Nordic neighbours, but remains below Europe's worst impacted countries such as Britain, Italy and Spain.
Dr Jason Oke, a statistician from the University of Oxford, said comparing nations now is like declaring a winner at half time during a football match, reports Mail Online.
He said: "Who knows what is going to happen in the second half? It’s anybody’s call."
Dr Oke said we need to wait another six months before we have a full picture of the pandemic, and only then can the figures be used to draw accurate comparisons.
Britain is currently leading in terms of death toll - second in the world only to the US - followed by Italy, France and Spain.
Different metrics can give different accounts of which nation is the "worst" impacted in Europe or worldwide - with Russia and Brazil racking up new cases at an alarming rate.
But even these do not factor in considerations such as underlying health problems, aging populations, or population density which can fuel the spread of coronavirus.
Taking the death toll per million places the UK behind Belgium and Spain, and puts the figures on the same level of Italy.
And the same metric would show the US, which has by far had the highest number of deaths and cases in the world, is actually do well in fighting the virus.
But this per capita comparison may not be accurate either as it biases the numbers against smaller countries as coronavirus spreads at faster rates among more closely packed populations.
Hannah Fry, an associate professor at University College London, explained the UK is suffering due to its crowded population - having 727 people per square mile.
London is also one of Europe's biggest cities - with large numbers of commuters travelling in every day from across the UK.
And the UK has the highest levels of obesity in Western Europe, with research showing 75 per cent of Covid-19 patients in intensive care are overweight or obese.
Professor Fry said: "Coronavirus is not something that affects everyone equally — existing health conditions matter too."
Germany is considered an overall success story, having just over 8,428 deaths from more than 180,789 cases after widespread testing to control the virus.
Dr Oke however said this could all change as it emerges from lockdown amid the threat of a second wave.
He said: "Who knows if, in three months’ time, their count will be closer to ours.
"You might call it now and be lucky — but it’s a waiting game."
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Belgium meanwhile has the highest per capita death rate in the world, but have been using a broader definition of the virus.
Professor Fry added: "In Belgium, they are erring on the side that any time they remotely suspect that Covid-19 was involved, they’ll include it in the official stats.
"This is why it is unfair to look at the number of deaths alone."
Ministers have previously said drawing parallels between countries is "very difficult" and opted to drop the daily comparisons.