How Putin’s Russia could ‘collapse like house of cards’ if he fails to find successor after ‘resignation’ rumours
SINCE his rise to power, Vladimir Putin has extravagantly honed his strongman image, famously posing shirtless on horseback rides through the freezing Siberian wilderness.
Now, however, shocking reports suggest the 68-year-old president could be set to step down next year over mounting concerns for his health.
Kremlin watchers have claimed Putin is showing tell-tale signs of Parkinson’s Disease, after studying footage that appears to show him twitching as he holds a pen and grips a cup believed to contain a cocktail of painkillers.
It comes as the president is expected to be granted life-long immunity from prosecution over criminal acts in Russia, with laws being passed through parliament this week that would help smooth the way for any departure.
The rumours surrounding his health - which his spokesmen insist are "nonsense" - will only further concerns about Putin's lack of a clear successor, following a controversial and brutal 20-year reign.
Dr Ben Noble, a Russia expert and lecturer at University College London, warns that any sudden, unplanned departure could see Russia's political system “collapse like a house of cards”.
“Putin has created such a personalised, centralised system that’s dependent on him that if he were incapacitated or died, that could lead to really quite a frightening situation for the political regime," he tells Sun Online.
“You could quickly see a scramble for power between different members of the elite who are currently kept in check by Putin balancing different factions against each other."
Putin dynasty is 'unrealistic'
Putin is reportedly being urged to step down by his glamorous ex-gymnast lover Alina Kabaeva, 37.
The former Olympic champion - dubbed “Russia’s most flexible woman” - is said to have formed a close inner circle along with his daughters Maria Vorontsova, 35, and Katerina Tikhonova, 34.
"There is a family, it has a great influence on him. [Putin] intends to make public his handover plans in January," said Moscow political scientist Professor Valery Solovei, who fuelled the new reports about Putin's health.
The plans for his successor however, remain unclear.
Dr Noble - who disputes the veracity of Solovei's claims - says any notion of a Putin dynasty is unlikely, after it was previously suggested the president could be grooming Katerina for power.
"Putin has very much tried to keep his family out of the limelight,” he explains.
“If he were grooming a successor, then a member of his family would have been made more prominent.
“He’d use his privileged access to the media to paint them in a favourable light, so they would already be known by the nation and would already be popular.”
Russian commentators believe Putin favours a handover to sympathetic loyalists such as Dmitry Medvedev, the former president, who would not seek to pursue him over past criminal acts.
"“The selection of people is already defined … These people are now in key positions," Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist and Russia expert, told Politco.
It really is a dog eat dog world when it comes to top level, elite dynamics in Russia and one of the reasons why Putin has been around so long is because he’s been able to balance these interests against each other
Dr Ben Noble
However, with no definitive successor yet named, concerns have risen during the coronavirus pandemic, which has seen the leader pictured visiting Russia’s main hospital alongside medics who were not wearing masks, headgear or gloves.
It has sparked fears that if the president was struck down by Covid-19, a destructive power struggle would ensue between warring members of Russia's rich and powerful, who Putin has so far kept at bay.
Prime minister Mikhail Mishustin would automatically take over duties under the current system, but is increasingly viewed as unsuitable for the job by Kremlin insiders.
"It really is a dog-eat-dog world when it comes to top level, elite dynamics in Russia and one of the reasons why Putin has been around so long is because he’s been able to balance these interests against each other," says Dr Noble.
"If Putin were to leave the stage quickly - say he got coronavirus and it were to end badly for him - we would see an exponential growth in these intra-elite attacks between different groups - between law enforcement agencies and powerful economic actors."
The contenders to succeed Putin
Dmitry Medvedev, 54, deputy chairman of Russian security council
Served as Russian president from 2008–12 and prime minister from 2012-20. A former chairman of Gazprom, Medvedev is now a key player on the Russian security council.
Key failing: No background in the army or secret services, and is seen as unpopular.
Sergei Shoigu, 65, defence minister
Previously minister of emergency situations, Shoigu has become close to Putin and is often seen accompanying him on his widely publicised fishing holidays.
Key failing: Potentially too old
Sergei Sobyanin, 62, Moscow mayor
A key player in the Covid crisis, Sobyanin has been credited with preventing Moscow hospitals from becoming overcrowded. Respected by Putin.
Key failing: Lacks military or intelligence background.
Alexey Dyumin, 48, governor of Tula region
Putin's former bodyguard has been described by some commentators as the ‘son he never had’. The 'action man' military hero is a trusted aide, and also plays in Putin's ice hockey team - as the goalkeeper, it's said his main job is to let the president score. Governor of Tula region since 2016.
Key failing: None apparent.
Vyacheslav Volodin, 56, chairman of Russian parliament
Ranked by a study in 2016 as one the three most influential politicians in Russia after Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. Chairman of the State Duma, one of the key chambers of the Russian parliament.
Key failing: No military or intelligence background.
Despotic reign marred by violence
Any eventual resignation would mark an end to a brutal reign that has seen Russia accused of a number of international atrocities.
In 2014, a Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down as it travelled from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, leading to the loss of 298 lives - including 10 Brits and 80 children.
Last year three Russians and a Ukrainian man were charged with mass murder over the downing of flight MH17.
The Dutch government is currently taking Russia to the European Court of Human Rights, with investigators claiming they have proof the missile system that shot down the plane was brought from Russia.
Russia has repeatedly denied its involvement in the attack.
In Britain, relations have soured with Moscow since the infamous 2006 assassination of Alexander Litvinenko, a former spy who fled to London after becoming an outspoken critic of the Putin regime.
A public inquiry found that Putin had most likely approved the killing of the 43-year-old father of one, who died after being poisoned by radioactive polonium-210, believed to have been administered in a cup of tea.
Tensions were heightened further in 2018 after former Russian double-agent Sergei Skripal, 68, and his daughter Yulia, 36, were targeted by two Russian agents at their home.
The pair nearly died after the deadly chemical Novichok was smeared on their front-door handle in Salisbury, Wilts.
British mother Dawn Sturgess, 44, died and her boyfriend Charlie Rowley, 45, was left seriously ill after she used the contents of a perfume bottle he found seven miles away, which were found to be contaminated with the nerve agent.
'Bathed in deer blood' to stay healthy
The rumours surrounding Putin’s health are a stark contrast to his hardman image, which he has carefully cultivated over the years in a stream of bizarre media appearances.
Last year, the Kremlin released previously unseen footage of the leader swimming with a pair of dolphins to commemorate 20 years since he became president.
Barmy annual calendars, meanwhile, which show him topless braving ice baths and riding horseback through Siberia, have become an unlikely sensation and sparked an internet craze of men taking up the ‘shirtless challenge’.
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Putin is said to hone his physique through two hours of swimming a day, while he has also been pictured working out at the gym in outfits costing as much as $3,200.
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However, local media have previously suggested he is also one of many Russians to drink and bathe in deer blood in a warped bid to gain strength.
The practice, which involves severing the antlers of Siberian red deers, has been criticised by animal rights groups, who claim the practice has no basis in science.