CORONAVIRUS

Cold winter and bad flu could leave 120,000 dead

The “worst-case scenario” assumes an R number rise to 1.7, which could “stretch NHS capacity”
The “worst-case scenario” assumes an R number rise to 1.7, which could “stretch NHS capacity”
NIALL CARSON/PA

There could be 120,000 Covid-19 deaths in hospitals between September and June if transmission rates rise in combination with cold weather and a bad flu season, the government has been warned.

The figure is given as the “reasonable worst-case scenario” in a report on what a “challenging” winter might look like. The summer months must be “a period of intense preparation”, the report, produced by the Academy of Medical Sciences at the request of Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, says. It calls for an information campaign to remind the public of their responsibilities, as well as NHS and government action.

The report’s scenario assumes a bad winter and the R number – how many people each infected person passes the virus on to