End Maduro’s regime by blocking its oil supplies to Cuba

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Absent a ground operation, how can the U.S. drive Venezuela’s pretender president, Nicolas Maduro, from power?

The answer is to remove his resource control over the levers of state coercion. Because if Maduro can’t command the security forces, he’ll have to either flee Venezuela or face a violent demise. For that reason, the next U.S. step against Maduro should be to cut off his oil supplies to Cuba.

As the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, Cuba receives about 40,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil each day. This, the Journal says, accounts for 28 percent of Cuba’s oil needs. And U.S. government analysis also suggests Cuba is heavily reliant on oil for its overall electricity needs. If these exports are constrained even by a medium degree, Cuba’s economy will face ruin. Its ruling communist government would in turn face great pressure to abandon Maduro.

The consequences for Maduro would be very serious. After all, Cuba’s intelligence service and its military enable Maduro to deter his security force from defecting to interim president, Juan Guaido. But if the Cubans aren’t getting their oil and sense they won’t unless they pack up and leave Venezuela, they won’t have a choice. At that point, Venezuelan security force defections will become easier. The end to Cuban support would immediately undercut Maduro’s credibility as a survivor.

Neither Cuba nor Venezuela has the means to contest the U.S. Navy in the Caribbean. And the U.S. 4th Fleet already has significant assets near its area of control. Considering more than 650 miles of water separate Cuba from Venezuela, a U.S. Navy embargo could be accomplished with a small flotilla of three to four U.S. destroyers operating about halfway between the two nations. Moreover, the U.S. military overmatch makes it likely that once the first oil tankers were turned back, the political ramifications would reverberate immediately through Havana and Caracas. Top officers would recognize the shifting tides of Maduro’s fortunes and seek rehabilitation under Guaido’s administration.

Would this action be legal? Yes. President Trump has wide constitutional latitude to deploy the U.S. military on sea interdiction operations. Guaido would also likely authorize such an action were the U.S. to ask his permission. Would it be moral? Also, yes. Venezuela’s people are starving and dying of easily treatable diseases because Maduro remains in power. And Guaido’s legitimate government has been blocked from power.

The time has come to cut off Maduro from his Cuban enablers.

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